Ethena price forecast as BaFin orders 42-day USDe redemption

• BaFin has ordered a 42-day USDe redemption, ending Ethena GmbH operations.
• ENA price is struggling to hold the support near $0.26 amid consolidation.
• A break above $0.2700 could trigger short-term upside targets, while a break below could trigger a further decline.

The price of Ethena (ENA) is under pressure as traders digest a major regulatory move by BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, which has ordered the shutdown of Ethena GmbH and introduced a 42-day redemption window for USDe stablecoin holders in the European Union.

The announcement has added a fresh layer of uncertainty around Ethena’s operations in the region, while simultaneously raising critical questions about the future of its stablecoin and its broader compliance strategy.

In line with the regulatory headwinds, ENA is holding a key support level, sparking cautious optimism among some market participants who are watching for the next move.

BaFin ends Ethena GmbH probe with redemption deal

On June 25, BaFin and Ethena GmbH reached a formal agreement to close their months-long regulatory standoff through a supervised redemption process for USDe holders within the EU and EEA.

This decision follows a crackdown that began in March, when BaFin blocked Ethena GmbH from distributing its USDe stablecoin and froze its reserve assets due to violations of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

Then, on April 15, Ethena announced it was winding down its operations in Germany.

BaFin argued that sUSDe, a yield-bearing version of USDe, qualified as an unregistered security under EU law, triggering the enforcement actions that eventually forced Ethena Labs to retreat from Germany.

Under the agreed terms, USDe holders in the EU have until August 6 to submit redemption claims directly with Ethena GmbH.

After the deadline, any unresolved claims will have to be filed with Ethena’s offshore entity in the British Virgin Islands, effectively ending the company’s regulated operations within the EU framework.

Ethena Labs stated that once the redemption process concludes, it will have no outstanding issues related to its German entity, though it did not clarify whether it plans to return to the EU market in the future.

ENA token struggles but shows resilience

Amid this regulatory backdrop, ENA’s price is showing signs of consolidation, with buyers defending a critical support zone near $0.26.

Although the token has lost over 30% in the past month and more than 55% over the last year, price action indicates that a potential reversal could be forming, provided bullish momentum builds above the $0.2700 level.

Currently, ENA is trading at $0.2613 after a modest intraday decline of 3.2%.

It remains within a narrow range between $0.2602 and $0.2757 over the past 24 hours.

Analysts note that if ENA can reclaim the $0.2700 resistance level with strong volume, a short-term breakout toward $0.2735 and possibly $0.2768 could follow.

However, if the token closes below $0.26, the setup would be invalidated, increasing downside risks and possibly inviting further selling pressure.

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