New model proves miners need Bitcoin above $74k to break even on power – but other costs push it over 6 figures

Riot case study shows US Bitcoin miners can clear power costs long before they clear full profit

Bitcoin mining costs are often reduced to a single number: the “cost to mine one $BTC.” In reality, that figure depends on what layer of the business you measure.

Electricity determines whether machines should run today, operating expenses determine whether a mining fleet supports the broader company, and accounting costs determine whether the business ultimately reports profit.

To examine those layers more clearly, CryptoSlate built a Bitcoin Mining Cost Model that calculates mining economics from first principles using network difficulty, block reward, transaction fees, ASIC efficiency, and electricity price.

The model then applies company-specific cost inputs using Riot Platforms’ public filings to illustrate how the economics stack up in practice.

Under current network conditions, the model shows that a miner can cover power costs but still fails to cover broader operating and accounting expenses.

Riot’s Texas operations reveal how far apart electricity break-even, operating break-even, and full accounting profitability can remain even after Bitcoin’s price recovery.

Riot’s mining economics reveal three break-even layers

At the current Bitcoin price of $67,200, Riot clears one break-even layer and misses the next two.

We modeled the data based on current network conditions, including Bitcoin difficulty of 145,042,165,424,850, a 3.125 $BTC block reward, $BTC per block, modern ASIC efficiency in the ~17–19 J/TH range, and Texas industrial electricity at roughly $0.0667 per kWh. We ignored block fees given that current averages sit around 0.02 $BTC per block.

That setup produces a network total of 622.95 sextillion hashes per block (the total work the network must do, on average, to mine one block), 199.34 sextillion hashes per $BTC (how fast a miner or the whole network does that work), and 969.04 megawatt-hours of energy per $BTC.

These assumptions yield an electricity cost of $64,635 to mine 1 $BTC at its current price, resulting in a power margin of $2,565 per $BTC.

When we add Riot’s filing-based non-power operating cost layer of about $9,809 per $BTC, the operating margin turns negative $7,243, and the total cost per $BTC jumps accordingly. Adding the non-cash depreciation layer of about $39,687 per $BTC pushes accounting profit to negative $46,930.

This clearly shows that, for large US miners, “cost to mine one Bitcoin” does not have a single figure.

1. One layer captures short-run electricity cost and helps decide whether machines are worth running.
2. A second layer adds broader operating costs and shows whether self-mining covers the rest of the business.
3. A third layer adds depreciation and shows whether the reported profit keeps pace with the cash margin.

The model places those layers side by side and shows how far apart they remain after the market’s recovery.

The break-even ladder defines the operating picture

The model produces a break-even ladder that says more than any single all-in mining-cost figure. Electricity-only break-even sits at $64,635 per $BTC.

Add Riot’s filing-based non-power operating cost layer, and break-even rises to about $74,444.

Add the accounting depreciation layer and full accounting break-even rises again to $114,130.

Therefore, miners can report positive power economics while still posting weak operating or accounting results.

Cost layer Modeled amount per $BTC Break-even $BTC price Electricity only $64,635 $64,635 Non-power operating costs $9,809 $74,444 Accounting depreciation $39,687 $114,130

I modeled four price scenarios to show how that ladder works in practice.

In my $49,000 bear case, Riot is negative on every measure. Power margin per $BTC is negative $15,635, operating margin is negative $25,443, and accounting profit is negative $65,130.

In the $67,200 current-price case, Riot moves just above electricity break-even, but only barely. The power margin turns positive, yet the operating and accounting views stay negative.

In the $80,000 recovery case, Riot clears the operating threshold, with an operating margin of $5,557 per $BTC, while the accounting view still shows a loss of $34,130.

It requires retaking the all-time high of $126,000 before all three views turn positive, with an accounting profit of $11,870 per $BTC.

$BTC price scenario Power margin per $BTC Operating margin per $BTC Accounting profit per $BTC $49,000 -$15,635 -$25,443 -$65,130 $67,200 $2,565 -$7,243 -$46,930 $80,000 $15,365 $5,557 -$34,130 $126,000 $61,365 $51,557 $11,870

The distinction is substantive. Riot’s depreciation layer is explicitly framed as non-cash and based on a three-year useful life. It is an accounting allocation rather than a short-term avoidable cash outflow.

It still belongs in the picture because public miners do not live on power margin alone. They report income statements. They replace machines. They absorb corporate costs.

So the useful question is which profitability line investors, analysts, and management teams are actually using and when to say a miner is profitable.

Riot’s next-halving projection extends the price test

We then ran a cost projection until the next halving in 2028.

Using Riot’s latest publicly available filings, we assume 38.5 exahash per second, ramping to 45 EH/s by March 31, 2026, and then holding that level flat through to the next halving window.

We are not attempting to rebuild the entire market. The model keeps current per-$BTC economics constant and scales them through Riot’s reported and planned self-mining hash-rate path.

This is a scenario exercise focused on operating leverage, and the price sensitivity is hard to miss.

Across all four scenarios, the projected cumulative $BTC mined is 15 thousand. What changes is the profit stack.

At $49,000 Bitcoin, Riot’s cumulative power margin is negative $239,436,036, cumulative operating margin is negative $389,648,124, and cumulative accounting profit is negative $997,428,094.

At $67,200, the cumulative power margin turns positive at $39,286,667, but the cumulative operating margin stays negative at $110,925,420, and the cumulative accounting profit remains negative at $718,705,391.

At $80,000, Riot turns cumulatively positive on operating margin at $85,099,338, while cumulative accounting profit is still negative at $522,680,632.

Only in the $126,000 scenario do all three lines move above zero, with cumulative accounting profit of $181,783,343.

$BTC price scenario Projected cumulative $BTC Cumulative power margin Cumulative operating margin Cumulative accounting profit $49,000 15 thousand -$239,436,036 -$389,648,124 -$997,428,094 $67,200 15 thousand $39,286,667 -$110,925,420 -$718,705,391 $80,000 15 thousand $235,311,426 $85,099,338 -$522,680,632 $126,000 15 thousand $939,775,402 $789,563,314 $181,783,343

A miner can be power-positive for a long stretch and still fail to cover broader operating costs. It can also turn operating-positive and still remain far from accounting profit. Riot’s case study shows that the gap between those states is wide.

In the model, the difference between power break-even and full accounting break-even is roughly $49,495 per $BTC. That spread helps explain why miners can look healthy on fleet dispatch and strained on reported earnings at the same time.

Our cumulative chart does not call future difficulty, fees, outages, curtailment revenue, financing, or new capex. It assumes today’s per-$BTC economics persist and scales them only according to Riot’s planned hash-rate path.

That limitation still leaves a clear signal. Holding the rest of the economics flat shows how much of the next-halving debate still hinges on Bitcoin’s price.

In Riot’s case, the model does not reach cumulative accounting profitability until the $126,000 scenario. However, in absolute terms, the level is $114,200.

Riot’s case gives a read-through for the wider US mining trade

The broader lesson for US miners is straightforward. Price alone does not settle the operating picture. Fleet efficiency and power price still decide the first cut.

In terms of cost sensitivity, we compare three ASIC presets: the Bitmain S21 at 17.5 J/TH, the WhatsMiner M60S at 18.5 J/TH, and the Antminer S19 Pro at 29.5 J/TH, using a Texas industrial power reference rate.

Across that range, the S19 Pro stays above the newer machines on cost per $BTC. The two newer models run close to one another, while the less efficient fleet carries a visibly higher cost line throughout the chart.

That point carries beyond Riot. Riot’s filing-based non-power cost layer and depreciation assumptions are company-specific. Another miner may have a different overhead base, a different useful-life assumption, a different curtailment profile, or a different realized power mix. But we feel the three-layer structure still travels well.

First comes power cost. Then operating cost. Then accounting cost.

The companies that survive weak price periods tend to clear the first layer comfortably. The companies that compound value through the cycle need to clear all three over time.

At the current price of around $67,000, the model does not show a company in distress at the machine level. The power margin is positive. Machines still earn more than they spend on electricity.

At the same time, it does not show a miner that has solved the full income statement. The operating line stays red. The accounting line stays deeper in the red. For a public miner, that split shapes treasury decisions, fleet replacement timing, and market expectations for earnings.

We can therefore extrapolate that Bitcoin miners can cross into positive power margin well below six figures, cross into positive operating margin in the recovery case, and still miss cumulative accounting profitability until we retest the all-time high above $114,000

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