Polymarket bets speculating on Trump vs. Harris hit record $445 million

Crypto gamblers have staked an astonishing $445 million on a potential presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, driving election betting to unprecedented levels on Polymarket.

Dune Analytics data shows that Polymarket’s cumulative bet volume reached $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This marks a dramatic increase compared to July 2023, when the platform’s cumulative bet volume was $283.16 million.

Polymarket allows users to bet on various news events, branding itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” Users can bet on over 1,000 different outcomes, including the US presidential election, which has drawn significant interest in recent weeks.

The platform saw a spike in users and bets following headlines about Harris’ likely Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump, the leading Republican contender, earlier this month.

Despite its US-focused topics, Polymarket remains inaccessible to American users directly, who must use VPNs and crypto wallets with USDC to place bets.

Trump vs. Harris stats

In the week following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic race, Harris doubled the Democrats’ odds of winning, moving from 18% to 38%. These gains primarily stemmed from numerous smaller bets, whereas Trump’s support came from a few high-stakes bettors.

Despite Harris’s recent gains, Polymarket whales (large-scale bettors) overwhelmingly favor Trump, who retains a significant lead with a 59% chance of winning the elections.

The platform’s interactive map and trending market analysis reflect a dynamic and heavily contested election season. Key battleground states show strong Republican favorability, with swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania favoring Republicans, while Michigan leans Democrat.

Overall, Republicans are favored to control the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are favored to control the House.

Kamala Harris currently has a 96% chance of being the Democratic nominee, with Michelle Obama trailing at 2%. Josh Shapiro leads the Democratic vice presidential nominee race with 32%, followed closely by Mark Kelly at 29%.

Bettors give Kamala Harris a 60% chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump holds a 38% chance.

Source