Crypto degens are taking wagers on global conflict via Polymarket

As global tensions escalate following the Israel-Iran conflict and traditional investors seek safety in safe haven assets like gold, crypto punters are seeking action on the crypto-based betting platforms, Polymarket.

The crypto betting platform rose to prominence for predicting President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory before other traditional news outlets and polls. It has also become the leading venue for punters making bets on the escalating crisis between Israel and Iran, becoming something of a high-stakes casino for the geopolitical drama in the Middle East.

Crypto punters wager on the Israel-Iran conflict and outcomes

As geopolitical tensions rise, Polymarket has become an unlikely casino, where crypto degens are taking wagers on global conflict. Its top active markets are centered on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict.

Polymarket predicted an 88% chance of Israel striking Iran in June, a 71% chance of the strike hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, and an astonishing 99% chance of the strike happening by Friday, the 13th.

Following the accurate prediction of the strike, punters took to Polymarket to place more wagers. This resulted in the top prediction markets being dominated by the wagers placed on the conflict.

The market went as high as a 99% chance that Iran would strike Israel in June, pulling in over $1 million in volume. Iran struck Israel in a military attack later on the same day, June 13.

Source: Polymarket

It also estimates a 42% chance of the U.S. taking military action against Iran before July. That market has now pulled in over $1.7 million in volume.

Source: Polymarket

Another market that has sprung up with the Middle East conflict is the spike in the price of Brent crude. It currently predicts a 44% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, which could further lead to global oil prices skyrocketing.

Source: Polymarket

Another market that could soon gain momentum is the prediction about whether Iran will confirm the possession of a nuclear weapon by 2025. This follows Israel’s claims that its preemptive strikes were on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This market has gained over $154,000 in volume.

Source: Polymarket

These markets operate in a regulatory grey area. After being fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket banned U.S. users from its platform.

Placing wagers on real-time geopolitical crises raises ethical concerns. Critics argue that it could be seen as trivializing suffering and incentivizing misinformation. Also, there are concerns of market manipulation, with the CFTC saying prediction markets are vulnerable to manipulation.

Israel-Iran conflict shakes global financial markets

On Friday, 13, 2025, Israel declared a special emergency following preemptive strikes on Iran, which are reported to have hit Iranian nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian generals. This event sent ripples through the global financial market.

With fears of broader conflicts arising, assets such as gold are seeing inflows. An ounce of gold has gained 1.2% to $3,444.70. Bitcoin dropped sharply, falling below $103,000 as investors fled risk assets; however, it quickly gained $105,700, a little bit off its intraday high.

Brent crude surged about 14% intraday, settling at about $75.54/barrel, driven by fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for about a fifth of global consumption flows and bordered by Iran, which also happens to be one of the world’s largest exporters of oil.

Global stocks were hit; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.4%, with the Dow industrials losing about 600 points.

Source