Bitcoin Price Analysis: What BTC Must Do to Regain Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just above the $100K mark after experiencing a sharp rejection from the $116K resistance. While volatility has cooled down, the structure is showing signs of potential weakness. Buyers have yet to show strong signs of re-entry, and with the recent flush in open interest, the market remains cautious.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has broken below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located around the $110K mark, indicating that short-term momentum has shifted bearish. The price is currently hovering around the key $100K level, which acted as support during recent corrections.

The RSI is also sitting near 36, showing that the market is approaching oversold territory, but not quite there yet. There’s a risk of continuation lower if the buyers fail to defend this zone, with the next major support sitting around $95K. Overall, the daily structure looks heavy, and recovery above the $108K–$110K zone is needed to flip the outlook back to bullish.

The 4-Hour Chart

In the 4-hour timeframe, the market recently broke down from a rising wedge pattern and retested it as resistance before continuing lower. Momentum remains weak, and attempts to bounce from the $100K zone have failed so far.

The price is holding just above the $100K–$101K support block, but the structure remains fragile. Any loss of this level could lead to a fast drop toward the next demand area near $95K. The RSI on the 4H is also near 41, showing some room for further downside, though not aggressively oversold.

Sentiment Analysis

Open Interest

Open interest has taken a significant hit recently, dropping from above $45B to under $33B over the past few weeks. This wipeout reflects a broad de-leveraging, likely driven by liquidations of aggressive long positions. Such a reset often clears out froth, but the fact that OI hasn’t rebounded yet suggests traders are still risk-off.

The lack of fresh leverage entering the market implies that participants are waiting for clearer price action before re-engaging. This sentiment aligns with the choppy price behavior and shows a market still on edge despite technical support zones holding, for now.

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