Bitcoin ETF Letdown? BTC Momentum Stalls as Market Cycles in

The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs was initially hailed as a major shift for the crypto industry. Many believed these investment vehicles would unlock significant institutional demand, propelling Bitcoin to new heights.

However, the reality has played out differently. Since January 20, 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, prompting questions about whether the market priced in perfection too soon.

Interestingly, historical market patterns may offer insights into Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed to similarities between Bitcoin’s ETF performance and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) launched in 1999.

The QQQ ETF peaked 54 weeks after its inception, a timeline that aligns with Bitcoin’s peak 54 weeks post-ETF launch. The coincidence is notable, especially given that this peak aligned with the U.S. presidential inauguration, a potential macroeconomic turning point.

I still think about the QQQ and BTC ETF comparison a lot, even though I keep wanting to see some type of divergence. But rather than diverge, they continue to present similarities.

I see a lot of people screaming that it’s the golden age of crypto but Bitcoin has basically done… https://t.co/y7NNeyyvs8 pic.twitter.com/o6AOl7j2N1

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 8, 2025

Memecoin Mania Drains Liquidity from Bitcoin & ETFs

A key issue in this cycle has been liquidity distribution. The rise of memecoins has taken capital away from Bitcoin and other established assets. Many retail investors were lured into believing in a “memecoin supercycle,” only to see most of these tokens collapse.

This pattern echoes previous speculative bubbles, where hype-driven assets outperformed momentarily before erasing gains.

Bitcoin dominance, which has climbed from 38% to 64%, demonstrates how capital is consolidating back into BTC. This trend suggests that investors are losing confidence in altcoins, opting instead for Bitcoin’s relative stability.

Moreover, the role of ETFs in this cycle has also been a point of debate. While they increase Bitcoin’s accessibility, they also raise concerns about long-term decentralization and institutional control over supply.

Echoes of the 70s? “Left-Translated Cycle” Scenario for Bitcoin

Historical market cycles provide another interesting angle. The 1970s, a period of high inflation and economic uncertainty, saw two left-translated market cycles. A left-translated cycle happens when a market peak occurs early, leading to prolonged bearish conditions.

If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we may see a sharp decline in Q1 2025, followed by a temporary relief rally in Q2/Q3. However, if BTC falls below $70,000 soon, it may confirm a left-translated cycle.

A lower high in the subsequent rally could prepare the stage for a recession in 2026. Conversely, if Bitcoin maintains support above $70,000, it might still reach new highs later.

As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $86,034.03, with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,823,451,453. The price has dropped by 3.28% in the last 24 hours but gained 0.75% over the past week. With a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, its market capitalization stands at $1,7 trillion.

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