Bitcoin V-Shaped Recovery at Risk: Will BTC Dip to $102K or Pump to $112K?

Bitcoin rebounded to $105K but faces resistance at $106K. With rising institutional outflows and weakening momentum, BTC is at risk of a deeper correction.

Following a sudden recovery over the weekend, Bitcoin reclaimed the $105,000 level. However, the intraday pullback and failure to hold above $106,000 signal a potential steeper correction. The risk compounds when considering that top U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting in London to discuss tariffs.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

In the 4-hour time frame, BTC shows a bullish V-shaped recovery from the $101,763 support level. The recovery rally peaked just above $106,000 before pulling back intraday by nearly 0.5%.

Currently, BTC is trading at $105,457, with three consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour chart, testing the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA).

Bitcoin price chart

Standing on fragile ground, BTC’s decline suggests a potential close below both the 50 and 100 EMA lines, as well as the crucial $105,000 support level. Supporting the downside risk, the 4-hour RSI is pulling back toward the midpoint, signaling weakening bullish momentum.

According to Fibonacci levels, immediate support lies at $102,400, corresponding to the 50% retracement level. The 200-period EMA at $103,574 could serve as intermediate support.

On the bullish side, immediate resistance is at the 23.60% Fibonacci level at $107,256, followed by the all-time high resistance at $111,980.

ETF Outflows Surge Amid Weak Institutional Support

Amid growing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, institutional support for Bitcoin declined at the end of last week. Weekly outflows totaled $128 million, following a $157 million outflow the previous week, highlighting short-term weakness in institutional backing for Bitcoin.

BTC ETFs Flow

Optimism Drops in Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market

The short-term pullback has significantly dampened optimism in the derivatives market. Open interest has fallen by nearly 1% to $71.05 billion, while the OI-weighted funding rate has flipped negative to -0.0056%.

BTC Derivatives

Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio remains relatively optimistic at 1.044, indicating a higher number of bullish positions. However, long liquidations over the past 24 hours rose to $7.49 million, though still less than short liquidations, which reached $13.37 million.

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