Will AAVE price recover above $100 as DeFi selling intensifies?

$AAVE price posted one of its sharpest single-session drops in months on April 6, briefly crashing through $84 before a partial recovery took hold. The chart damage is clear: $100 has gone from support to resistance in a single session, and the technical setup across both the daily and four-hour timeframes remains decisively bearish.

$AAVE (Aave) price crashed to $83.92 on April 6, sliding more than 11% from the prior session’s close of $94.15 before recovering to $94.66, as DeFi sector selling and broader macro risk-off sentiment pressured the Aave lending protocol’s native token. The drop confirmed a decisive break below the $100 psychological support, a level the daily chart now labels as resistance following months of acting as a structural floor.

$100 Support Flips to Resistance as Bearish Pressure Deepens

On the daily chart, the Supertrend indicator sits at $107.82, well above price and capping any near-term recovery attempt. The MACD histogram remains negative across the daily timeframe, with the signal line still below zero, confirming that selling momentum has not yet reversed. Today’s candle printed a long lower wick from $83.92, reflecting demand at intraday lows, but the $94.66 close falls well short of what is needed to challenge the $100 threshold.

BGD Labs, a core technical contributor to the Aave protocol, formally concluded its engagement on April 1 after citing governance tensions. Aave founder Stani Kulechov had previously noted on X that the protocol’s risk infrastructure “has historically processed over 1,200 payloads and 3,000 parameters without issues,” but BGD Labs’ exit has introduced fresh uncertainty around development continuity heading into the V4 launch cycle.

On the 4H chart, the Supertrend at $92.29 is acting as dynamic support. The 4H MACD histogram is near flat, reflecting a pause in downside momentum rather than a confirmed reversal.

Key Levels: $80 Zone in View if $92 Fails

The 4H Supertrend at $92.29 is the immediate support to monitor. A daily close below that level reopens the $83.92 intraday low as the next test. Below that, the $80 round number marks the next significant support, reinforced by the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of $AAVE’s 2024 to 2025 rally, which falls in the $80 to $85 zone. That is the bear case invalidation level for any medium-term recovery thesis.

On the upside, $100 is the primary resistance. A confirmed daily close above the Supertrend at $107.82 is the minimum required to shift the short-term bias toward neutral. A sustained recovery above $100 with volume confirmation opens the path toward $112, as indicated by the potential ascending structure visible on the 4H chart.

On-Chain Context and Institutional Signals

Grayscale Investments has filed to convert its Aave Trust into an ETF on NYSE Arca, a potential longer-term demand catalyst, though approval timelines provide no near-term price support. According to CoinGlass data, $AAVE futures open interest has declined alongside price in recent sessions, consistent with long-side deleveraging rather than aggressive fresh short building, which reduces the probability of a sharp short-covering bounce.

If $92.29 gives way on the 4H chart, a revisit of the $83.92 intraday low looks probable, with $80 as the last significant structural support before territory $AAVE has not traded in years.

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