Ethereum price rejects from the 0.618 Fib: is more downside ahead or just a fakeout?

Ethereum recently rejected from a key confluence zone, including the 0.618 Fibonacci level. With price back under the point of control, traders are watching closely for signs of a deeper move or a trap.

Ethereum’s (ETH) price action has stalled at a technically significant region, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, drawn from the most recent pivot high to low. This area is also reinforced by daily horizontal resistance and a descending VWAP, adding to its weight as a decision zone. After several failed attempts to push higher, ETH has now begun to roll over, trading back under the point of control (POC) of the local range.

Key technical points

• Major Resistance Cluster: The 0.618 Fibonacci aligns with daily resistance and a descending VWAP, forming a strong technical ceiling.
• Loss of POC: Price has fallen below the volume point of control, indicating sellers are gaining control of the short-term auction.
• Bearish Structure Building: Lower highs and a stalled breakout raise the probability of a move toward the next key support near $1,540.

ETHUSDT Chart (4), Source: TradingView

Detailed analysis

After an impulsive move higher, Ethereum’s price has spent several sessions consolidating below a heavy resistance zone. The 0.618 Fibonacci level, a widely watched retracement marker, is reinforced by daily horizontal resistance and a declining VWAP drawn from the last major high. This confluence attracted notable selling pressure, and ETH has now failed multiple times to break above.

What adds further caution to the current structure is the recent loss of the point of control within this region. Price has now dipped below the highest-volume node of the recent range, suggesting that the market is no longer accepting value at these levels. This often precedes range rotation or continuation in the direction of the rejection, in this case, to the downside.

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The technical landscape also reveals a clear short-term bearish structure forming. ETH has been unable to print higher highs or maintain higher lows, increasing the probability of a broader correction. The next logical support level sits around $1,540, not only a structural level from previous sessions but also a zone with visible price inefficiencies (e.g., unfilled fair value gaps and single prints) that could act as magnets for price.

This setup opens the door for a potential 10% downside move from current levels, especially if the recent swing low fails to hold. Still, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a fakeout, as Ethereum has previously shown sudden strength from similar rejection zones.

What to expect in the coming price action

Ethereum’s failure to break out above the 0.618 confluence zone and its rejection from the POC suggest a higher chance of rotation toward lower supports. If price breaks below the recent swing low, the $1,540 region could be the next target.

However, if buyers can defend current levels and reclaim the POC, this might prove to be a local fakeout before resuming upward. For now, caution is warranted as price hovers near a decisive level.

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