Will Ethereum Hold $3K? Profitability Metrics Say Otherwise

Ethereum (ETH) is grappling with fading bullish strength as its recent attempt to surpass critical resistance zones has faltered. Trading at $3,119, the ETH token hovers just below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,312, caught in a delicate consolidation phase that could dictate its next big move.

One-Day Chart Analysis

According to the daily chart analysis, a notable effort was made to break through the $3,500 resistance level, where key technical factors converged. This included the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,517. Yet, the push was met with stiff selling pressure, forcing a retreat and leaving bulls unable to capitalize on the momentum.

Ethereum’s failure to maintain momentum above key resistance levels has revealed weakness in buying pressure, triggering a corrective move to its current level of around $3,119. At present, the $3,000 support level stands as a critical line of defense, providing stability amidst mounting bearish pressure.

However, should this support break, the cryptocurrency risks a further drop toward $2,927, a pivotal Fibonacci retracement zone that could serve as a key battleground between bulls and bears. Such a breakdown would likely reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing the ETH token into deeper corrections and reshaping its short-term market trajectory.

On the upside, the 100-day moving average (MA) acts as a formidable resistance, capping any bullish recovery attempts as long as the ETH cryptocurrency trades below it. Meanwhile, the symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart adds an element of suspense, suggesting the prospect of a sharp and decisive move in either direction.

A breakout above $3,500 could reignite optimism and open the door to higher price targets. However, a breach below $3,000 might accelerate selling pressure, leaving bulls on the defensive and potentially tipping the balance in favor of bears. With the Ethereum token at a critical juncture, its next move will likely define the immediate market outlook, keeping traders on edge.

Profitability and Transaction Analysis

Ethereum’s current price level, hovering around $3,119, paints a complex picture for traders and investors. According to the profitability chart, 87.02% of addresses holding ETH tokens are “out of the money,” indicating that most holders are experiencing unrealized losses at the current price.

Only 9.89% of addresses are “in the money,” signaling a steep uphill battle for bulls to regain momentum. Meanwhile, 3.09% of addresses are “at the money,” reflecting the delicate equilibrium in the market. This stark disparity underscores the importance of the $3,000 support zone, as its failure could intensify bearish sentiment, driving prices toward the next key Fibonacci retracement level of $2,927.

Conversely, a decisive push above the $3,132-$3,500 resistance range would likely provide much-needed relief for struggling investors. On the other hand, the transaction count data by size reveals further insights into market behavior. Small-scale transactions under $1,000 have seen marginal growth, with increases of +1.21% and +9.09%, respectively, for transactions under $1 and between $1 and $10.

However, larger transactions are on a steep decline. For instance:

• Transactions between $10,000 and $100,000 have dropped by -30.43%.
• Transactions in the $1 million-$10 million range have plummeted by -29.55%.
• Institutional-sized transactions exceeding $10 million have taken the hardest hit, declining by -48.57%.

This downward trend in large-scale transactions suggests waning confidence among institutional players, further weighing the cryptocurrency’s short-term outlook.

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