Polymarket slashes odds of Fed chair removal to 14%, reflecting improving market sentiment

Prediction market Polymarket has lowered the odds of Jerome Powell being removed as Federal Reserve Chair as Trump signals support.

According to Polymarket, the odds of Jerome Powell being removed as Federal Reserve Chair by 2025 are now 14%, down 9 percentage points in the last 24 hours. The shift follows a public statement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who confirmed he has “no intention” of firing Powell, despite prior tensions over interest rate policy, as reported by Reuters.

Trump added that he would prefer Powell to be “a little more active” in cutting rates but has no plans to replace him. This marks a sharp reversal from just a week ago when rumors circulated that Trump’s administration was preparing to interview candidates to replace Powell.

These rumors intensified following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments and reports of ongoing disagreements between Powell and Trump regarding monetary policy. Trump has been pushing for more aggressive rate cuts to offset the economic effects of his newly imposed tariffs.

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Powell, meanwhile, has advocated a cautious approach, resisting further cuts while also revising the Fed’s 2025 economic outlook downward. Polymarket’s updated odds reflect growing market confidence in Powell’s stability as Fed Chair. The news has helped ease concerns of leadership instability, often a source of volatility in both traditional and crypto markets.

The cryptocurrency market responded well to the news, coupled with Trump’s softening stance on aggressive tariffs imposed on China. Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $93,000, its highest level in weeks. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now in the “Greed” territory after rising 25 points to 72, indicating a higher risk appetite among investors.

With 13 months remaining in Powell’s term, Trump’s support has brought temporary calm to a previously heated debate. Market analysts say continued clarity from the White House on economic policy will be key to maintaining investor confidence in the coming months.

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