Iran’s president warns against infrastructure attacks amid war tensions

Iran’s President Pezeshkian stated Iran holds no hostility toward Americans but warned against attacking Iran’s infrastructure. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 28% a week ago.

This statement nudged the April 15 ceasefire market to 20% YES, showing slight optimism for de-escalation. Despite the source’s limited credibility, traders see it as a faint signal of diplomatic willingness. The April 30 market climbed to 38% YES, suggesting traders expect potential talks within the month, with a significant 19-point jump expected between April 15 and April 30.

The market trades $1,349,365 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The order book shows $47,034 is needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating institutional interest despite low odds. The largest price move was a 3-point drop yesterday at 9:56 PM, reinforcing bearish sentiment amid ongoing conflict.

While President Pezeshkian’s comments suggest a desire to avoid escalation, they’re unlikely to sway the odds significantly without concrete diplomatic steps. A YES share for the April 7 ceasefire pays $1 at 8¢ — a 12.5x return if immediate talks occur. For odds to shift meaningfully, look for named intermediaries or reduced military actions.

Watch for any statements from Secretary of State Rubio or CENTCOM that might suggest a shift in military or diplomatic posture. A confirmed back-channel meeting or an envoy appointment would be pivotal.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 7.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 19.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 56.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 66.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES

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