As US Pressure Against Venezuela Builds, Polymarket Bettors Handicap Maduro’s Exit Timing

Over the past year, tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have heated up heading into late 2025 under President Trump, marked by U.S. maritime strikes, tanker seizures, and sanctions aimed squarely at Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Polymarket bettors say the odds of Maduro being pushed from power are ticking higher, with a 21% chance it happens before Jan. 31, 2026.

Polymarket Traders Bet on When — Not If — U.S. Pressure Forces Maduro Out

For years, the United States has viewed Nicolás Maduro’s rule as illegitimate, citing election fraud and the steady squeezing of democratic processes. With Trump back in the commander in chief’s chair, Maduro’s government is again facing accusations of narco-trafficking, including alleged ties to groups such as the Cartel de los Soles accused of funneling drugs into the U.S.

More than 20 maritime strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels have taken place since September, moves Maduro blasted as acts of aggression. The U.S. dialed up the pressure further by seizing the Venezuelan-linked tanker Skipper on Dec. 10, hauling 2 million barrels of crude and labeled part of a “shadow fleet” dodging sanctions. Maduro fired back, branding the move “criminal naval piracy.”

That backdrop has turned Maduro and his inner circle into prime betting material. Polymarket now lists 13 wagers directly tied to Maduro and the U.S.-Venezuela standoff. One standout market has pulled in $24.49 million in volume, all focused on when Maduro leaves office. While prediction market bettors are not exactly racing to pack his bags, they are slowly easing the zipper.

Source: Polymarket bet on Dec. 13, 2025.

Odds of an exit by Dec. 31, 2025 sit at a frosty 9%, essentially the market shrugging and muttering “not happening.” Slide the calendar to January 2026 and confidence nudges up to 21%, still leaning more toward hope than certainty. By March 31, 2026, sentiment shifts again, with odds rising to 38% as traders begin to entertain the idea that sustained pressure could finally bite.

Extend the timeline to Dec. 31, 2026, and the Polymarket bet moves into majority territory at 56%, suggesting that while Maduro appears entrenched for now, bettors increasingly see time—not headlines—as his biggest adversary. Another prediction market pegs a 13% chance of Maduro holding talks with Trump and a 37% chance he leaves Venezuela by March 31, 2026.