Following the government shutdown in the US, gold and Bitcoin (BTC) are facing off again as investors seek a safe haven.
Analyst Frank Cappelleri, while evaluating the current picture, stated that gold has entered the overbought region even though it exhibits a strong trend technically, while Bitcoin is preparing the ground for a new rise.
Cappelleri noted that gold has made a strong breakout thanks to the “classic continuation pattern” it has displayed throughout the year, recording a historic 17.3% gain in the last two months. However, he cautioned that gold may enter a period of recession following this rise:
The RSI indicator has re-established itself around 80. While this suggests that momentum is strong, it also suggests a need for a breather.
While gold remains strong, analysts believe there could be short-term outflows. Cappelleri emphasized that Bitcoin is one of the assets likely to attract capital:
“While gold is tiring in the short term, Bitcoin has been showing signs of recovery in recent days. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to outperform gold as it approaches its peak.”
Cappelleri also highlighted Bitcoin’s seasonal effects. He noted that October and November have historically been strong months for Bitcoin, adding that this period has a self-fulfilling prophecy effect on investor psychology.
Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by over 20% since the beginning of the year. However, according to the analyst, this gap could close:
“If the recent Bitcoin recovery is the start of a new strong rally like the one in April, BTC could catch up with gold or give back some of its gains.”
As a result, Cappelleri stated that investors are reconsidering their search for safe havens due to the government shutdown, and that a capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin may gain momentum in this environment.