Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Passed a Major Stress Test During Oil Volatility

TL;DR

• Tom Lee states Bitcoin passed its toughest test by holding $70,000.
• October 2025 deleveraging was an exceptional event, now resolved.
• Exchange withdrawals of 29,000 $BTC support accumulation narrative.

Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee told CNBC that bitcoin faced its most demanding exam — and passed. Speaking from the sidelines of the Future Proof conference in Miami, Lee pointed to the weekend rally as evidence that the asset restored its ability to function as a store of value during geopolitical stress.

Bitcoin held above $70,000 while crude oil climbed sharply following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a combination that in previous cycles would have pushed the asset lower alongside risk-off selling.

Lee acknowledged that Bitcoin’s behavior during the massive deleveraging event of October 2025 represented a weak point. During that stretch, gold rose while bitcoin fell, reopening the debate over whether the digital asset genuinely serves as a safe haven.

His answer was direct: the October 2025 deleveraging episode was the largest in the history of the crypto market, an event of exceptional magnitude that forced broad liquidations regardless of underlying fundamentals. In Lee’s view, that chapter is now closed.

The Crypto Market Already Went Through Its Bear Market

Lee drew a clear picture of where the current cycle stands. By his reading, the market already absorbed its full correction across three simultaneous fronts: software stocks, the Magnificent 7, and cryptocurrencies. That process cleared out much of the speculation and excess leverage the market built up through 2024 and early 2025. With that excess out of the system, the structural conditions for a durable recovery improve considerably.

On the equities side, Lee projected a positive close for March and pointed to 5,300 on the S&P 500 as a target for later in the year, though he warned of a potential 20% decline at some point — most likely when markets stop responding positively to good news.

On-chain data partially supports his thesis. At the time of the analysis, Binance Research recorded withdrawals of approximately 29,000 $BTC from exchanges while the price traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. That pattern stands in direct contrast to the prior sell-off — when price dropped from $92,000 to $62,000 — during which exchange balances were rising, a classic signal of selling pressure. The reversal in exchange flows supports the accumulation narrative Lee laid out from the Miami stage.

At the close of the report, Bitcoin traded near $70,000, down just 0.2% over 24 hours after briefly touching $71,600. On a weekly basis the asset gained 3%, and across two weeks it added nearly 7%, though it remains 12% below its year-ago level and more than 44% off its October 2025 all-time high.

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