Bitcoin faces continued downside risk amid geopolitical uncertainty – StanChart

Bitcoin has encountered significant volatility, with market factors and geopolitical events making it difficult to predict where its price might settle, according to Standard Chartered head of digital assets Geoffrey Kendrick

Kendrick highlighted that the recent sharp decline in Nasdaq futures and Bitcoin prices may signal a bottoming out, but geopolitical uncertainty continues to apply downside pressure in the near term.

Market Uncertainty

Kendrick pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations, exacerbated by a sharp 5% decline in Nasdaq futures and the lack of clarity around critical issues such as US tariffs, the Ukraine conflict, and potential changes to tax policy.

While these factors have contributed to market risk, Kendrick sees them as transient and suggests that Bitcoin could recover once these issues stabilize.

However, he reiterated that Bitcoin continues to face downward risk and could fall to the post-election price range of $69,000-$76,500 in the near term before finding support.

He said:

“Until we get some certainty on tariffs/Ukraine/tax cuts/Doge cuts it is difficult to call a bottom for risk.”

Kendrick also highlighted the impact of President Donald Trump’s recent announcement regarding a strategic crypto reserve that would include digital assets beyond Bitcoin. He noted that while the inclusion of non-Bitcoin coins in the crypto market has generated debate, Trump’s influence on the market has heightened volatility.

Strategy and Bitcoin

Kendrick also examined Strategy (MSTR), which recently rebranded from MicroStrategy, highlighting that the firm’s stock has already fallen to levels recorded after the November US elections. Despite this drop, Kendrick emphasized that the company’s stock performance remains intertwined with Bitcoin.

He noted firm’s stock price has been hovering around the $242.69-$261.20 per share range for several days, without closing below this level, which indicates support at this level. However, its unclear if this is the local bottom for the stock due to the global economic uncertainty and lackluster performance of the equities market.

Kendrick further noted that MicroStrategy’s average purchase price for Bitcoin is $65,000 and its stock could potentially fall further if Bitcoin fallsto new yearly lows.

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