Bitcoin Enters Death Cross—And Ethereum Isn’t Far Behind: Analysis

Crypto traders and investors who bought near highs in recent months are getting absolutely rekt right now, as hype fades and the market bleeds.

Bitcoin is down to around $88,000, falling more than 20% over the last 30 days. The crypto market as a whole today fell to $3.04 trillion—down 4.82% in 24 hours—with 95% of all coins bleeding red. The Fear and Greed Index just hit 16, the lowest reading since April, firmly in extreme fear territory. To put this in perspective: Zcash is the only coin in the top 50 by market cap managing to stay green today, squeezing out a 4% gain.

And the macro picture? It’s not helping.

Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut are decreasing, Bitcoin ETFs just posted their fifth consecutive day of outflows (a record $523 million from BlackRock alone just yesterday), and traders seem to be looking for a hedge as the possibility of a crypto winter in 2026 gets more serious.

Meanwhile, on Myriad—the prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—traders are positioning for more carnage. A whopping 73.3% of the money on Myriad is betting Bitcoin dumps to $85K, as opposed to pumping to $115K. As for Ethereum, Myriad users place the odds at 62% that ETH, currently trading for around $2,800, slides to $2.5K over a rally to $4K.



Are they right? Here’s what the charts say.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: Death cross confirmed

Bitcoin opened today at $92,911 and promptly fell off a cliff, sliding more than 4% to its current price of $88,605. That’s a $4K slip in a single day that once again pushed BTC below the psychologically critical $90K level and marked a fresh seven-month low.

The technical setup is starting to look ugly.

Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: Tradingview

Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium, and long term. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the long-term 200-day EMA, it typically means sellers are dominating the market structure.

For Bitcoin, the 50-day EMA just crossed below the 200-day EMA, forming the dreaded “death cross” pattern that signals longer-term bearish momentum. Bitcoin is now trading well below both moving averages, which creates nasty overhead resistance that bulls need to reclaim before any meaningful recovery can begin.

Here’s where it gets worse: The Average Directional Index—which measures trend strength regardless of direction—is sitting at a robust 38.25. ADX readings above 25 indicate a strong trend is in place, and above 35 signals a very strong trend. This tells us the current downtrend isn’t some weak, directionless chop; there’s real momentum behind this selloff, as reflected in the “extreme fear” reading on the Crypto Fear and Green Index.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has cratered to 27.12, firmly in oversold territory below 30. RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold based on recent price movements, and at 27, Bitcoin is stretched like a rubber band. This doesn’t mean the selling stops immediately, but it does suggest we’re approaching exhaustion levels where a violent bounce becomes more likely. That may mean prices soon testing the support (now resistance) level that has been in place since June, visible in the chart above in the dotted white line.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator, which shows the market phase of prices and helps identify when trends are about to shift, is flashing bearish impulse signals, confirming the compression is releasing downward.

So are Myriad predictors right in setting that $85K target?

The wisdom of the crowd might be onto something. The chart shows a Fibonacci support around $84,451, with stronger support near $71,486. If Bitcoin loses the $88K-$89K zone it’s currently testing, there’s not much stopping a move toward $85K and below.

However, that oversold RSI suggests any drop to $85K would likely be a quick wick rather than a sustained breakdown. Capitulation moves tend to reverse violently once they flush out the last of the leveraged long positions—those futures contracts betting on the price of Bitcoin to go up using borrowed capital.

The upside case to $115K would require Bitcoin to reclaim the death cross and break above the descending trendline around $100,492—a tall order that explains why only 26.7% of traders are betting on it.

Key levels:

Resistance:

• $92,000 (immediate),
• $100,492 (descending trendline)

Support:

• $84,451 (strong),
• $71,486 (major)

Ethereum (ETH) price: When good indicators turn bad

And if Bitcoin is in bad shape, then Ethereum has it even worse. ETH today dumped 6.73% from an opening price of $3,121.7 to close at $2,911.8, with an intraday low of $2,895.8.

Ethereum (ETH) price data. Image: Tradingview

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s 50-day EMA is still trading above its 200-day EMA—a “golden cross” that’s supposed to be bullish. So why is ETH getting destroyed?

The golden cross tells you the longer-term trend structure is intact, but it doesn’t protect you from brutal corrections within that trend. Ethereum is trading below both moving averages despite the golden cross, which means the bullish structure is being tested hard.

Also, the setup is very likely to turn bearish soon: The two EMAs are just about to cross, so if ETH dips for a few days, you’ll have another death cross here too.

And get this: Ethereum’s ADX is even more extreme than Bitcoin’s at 42.4. Traders would view this as a very strong trend, and right now that trend is firmly bearish. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator for ETH is likewise showing bearish impulse signals

What might make this particularly painful for ETH holders is that Ethereum has stronger downward momentum (higher ADX) but is also barely above oversold territory with an RSI of 30.92—just kissing the 30 threshold. This creates a knife-edge situation where the strong downtrend could push RSI deeper into oversold before reversing.

The ETH chart shows support around $2,796 and stronger support near $2,300. Myriad users are again strongly favoring the downside at the moment, with nearly 67% odds that Ethereum falls to $2.5K or below, which aligns with the technical analysis.

Ethereum needs to hold the $2,700-$2,800 zone (shown in the Fibonacci levels) to keep the 200-day EMA intact. If that breaks, the next meaningful support is indeed around $2,300-$2,500—exactly where most Myriad users are looking.

For the 33% betting on $4K? That would require ETH to reclaim the $3,100-$3,200 zone, hold it as support, and grind through multiple resistance levels. It’s possible if macro conditions improve, but the technicals right now don’t support it.

Keep praying, bulls. This is crypto after all. Crazier things have happened.

Key Levels:
Resistance:

• $3,100 (50-day EMA)
• $3,562 (prior resistance)

Support:

• $2,700-$2,800 (200-day EMA critical)
• $2,300 (strong)

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

Source