Solana Price’s Sharp Rebound Explained as ETF Odds Hit 74%

Solana (SOL) price demonstrated a sharp recovery this week after briefly slipping below its long-held $125 support zone. The price had fallen below this level—maintained since late 2023—sparking fears of a broader market breakdown.

However, the dip turned out to be a false breakdown, as the market quickly reversed to reclaim prior levels. SOL price surged 7.81% for the week, returning to a critical trading range between $129 and $144.

Analysts said this strong bounce and rising whale accumulation could support a fresh rally toward the $200 zone.

Derivatives Data Suggested Renewed Trader Interest

According to data from Coinglass, open interest climbed by 10.11% to reach $5.55 billion. Trading volume increased by 24.28% to reach $12.6 billion during this period.

The combined metrics showed that traders took more positions in anticipation of near-term market volatility. Both retail and institutional traders opened more positions due to their expectation of fast-moving prices.

Source: Coinglass

SOL’s brief breakdown below $125 triggered a spike in leveraged interest, which quickly reversed once prices stabilized. Many traders saw this as a fakeout, not a bearish breakdown. The recovery to $129 sparked renewed optimism.

Source: Andrew Griffiths, X

Meanwhile, analyst Andrew Griffiths highlighted a Cup and Handle pattern on Solana’s weekly chart. He identified $129 as strong support and resistance between $139.80 and $143.94. These levels matched current market behavior, implying a potential breakout to higher price targets.

Whale Activity Showed Long-Term Confidence

On-Chain data revealed that large investor wallets continued accumulating Solana throughout the week. Lookonchain reported that Galaxy Digital transferred 606,000 SOL tokens which had a market value of $79.7 million to private wallets.

The SOL token investment resulted in 462,000 units worth about $60 million. The move decreased circulating supply while signaling an investment shift towards holding for the long term.

Furthermore, the number of wallets with 10,000 SOL or more increased by 1.53% over the week from 4,943 to 5,019. According to analyst Ali Martinez, institutional investors show greater confidence when large wallets exhibit increased activity.

The market saw entry of large investors through this development. Ali emphasized that such activity usually corresponds with stronger price support and reduced sell pressure.

Source: Ali Martinez, X

Notably, large investors started accumulating assets because they saw the price dip as a buying opportunity. Market conditions improved because of decreased supply and lowered staking activity which resulted in price appreciation fueled by increasing demand.

Solana Price Technical Levels and Patterns Point to Upside Potential

According to Griffiths, a Cup and Handle pattern formed when Solana price reached its bottom at $123.55. Since then, the price has been steadily rising, with the handle currently shaping up between $139 and $144.

A breakout above this resistance could trigger a move toward $150. If momentum holds, the long-standing resistance zone at $190 to $200 could be tested again.

Additionally, Ali Martinez confirmed the support level at $129 and marked $144 as the near-term resistance.

These levels matched the highs and lows observed throughout the week. According to technical analysis, a sustained move above $144 may clear the path for further gains.

Source: Ali Martinez, X

The SOL/BTC pair showed weak signals indicating a bearish trend. The potential death cross formation brought doubts about Solana’s performance in relation to Bitcoin.

Analysts noticed that Solana’s break above a parallel channel weakened the bearish signal. A successful breakout from this pattern might alter market sentiment across crypto markets.

Solana Crypto ETF Speculation Drives Institutional Attention

Solana crypto gained momentum among institutions after the launch of Canada’s spot Solana ETFs with staking. The listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange introduced new investment vehicles, further validating the network.

Prediction markets on Polymarket now show a 74% probability of U.S. Solana ETF approval by year-end 2025. The odds for a July 2025 approval are at 24%. Firms like Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and VanEck have reportedly begun groundwork for such offerings.

This growing optimism has boosted institutional positioning in SOL, as traders prepare for a potential inflow surge once ETFs are approved in the U.S.

Source