Coinbase, Glassnode Forecast Crypto Upside in Q3 on Regulatory, Macro Tailwinds

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode project a constructive outlook for cryptocurrency markets in Q3 2025, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions, advancing U.S. regulation, and accelerating corporate adoption of digital assets.

Fed Cuts, Regulation to Drive Crypto Gains: Coinbase & Glassnode Q3 Outlook

Institutional analysts David Duong, CFA, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and the team at Glassnode assert that key tailwinds are aligning. In a recent report, they cite diminishing recession risks, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a significant US policy shift toward “market-friendly” crypto regulations as primary catalysts.

The report notes “unprecedented” pro-crypto regulatory progress in H1 2025, with landmark stablecoin legislation and comprehensive digital asset frameworks likely imminent. Corporate treasury purchases of bitcoin are highlighted as a major new demand source.

While acknowledging medium-term systemic risks from leveraged buying, Coinbase and Glassnode state these aren’t an immediate concern. Bitcoin dominance reached 64% by June 30, nearing a four-year high, while U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw massive Q2 net inflows of $14.6 billion—far exceeding Q1’s $627 million. Stablecoin supply also hit a record $230+ billion.

Onchain metrics signal improved investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted NUPL shifted from “Anxiety” to “Belief” in Q2. The percentage of the BTC supply in profit rebounded from below 75% to nearly 100%. Ethereum fundamentals strengthened too, with ETH and layer two (L2) transactions rising 7% while fees fell 39%.

Partner contributions underscore key themes: Bitwise emphasized that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 225% of all newly mined BTC since January 2024, creating severe supply pressure. Grayscale spotlighted the nascent decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) crypto sector (~$15B market cap), while Parafi noted prediction market platform Polymarket‘s resilient volumes post-2024 U.S. election.

While a pullback is possible, Coinbase and Glassnode believe conditions won’t revert to 2024 lows. Factors that could alter their view include aggressive Fed easing (bullish) or escalating global trade tensions/geopolitical conflicts (bearish).

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