Altcoin winter may be coming, as most assets have been sliding against BTC and in dollar terms

Despite the expectations for an altcoin season in 2025, the rallies for most assets were short-lived. On-chain metrics also suggest that even the leading altcoins are back to crypto winter conditions, as activity is winding down.

On-chain metrics point to an ‘altcoin winter’, where most assets will only slide to a lower range. In 2025, prices shifted to altcoin season on several occasions, but the rallies only lasted for a few days.

For the year to date, altcoins excluding the top 10 assets are down by 35.5%, extending their long-term slide. Even blue-chip assets saw a downturn in the past month, despite expectations for a market-wide recovery in October.

Despite the occasional altcoin pumps and the recovery of ETH, smaller altcoins dropped by over 35.5% in the year-to-date. | Source: TradingView

For most of 2025, on-chain activity remained high, boosted by DeFi, meme tokens, and DEX trading, as well as lending. Stablecoin transfers also kept some of the major chains active.

Some altcoins may outperform BTC in the short term, but overall, the markets rarely see a full rotation of liquidity into the riskier assets. The rise in perpetual DEX trading also means fewer buyers for altcoins, and fewer holders, but more directional bets through leveraged trading.

Altcoin prices lost 50% on average

In the past three months, those metrics took a downturn, with a lower number of active wallets, new users, and transaction counts. Most altcoins are down 50% on average over the past three months, while they also never revisited all–time highs from previous cycles.

Based on the altcoin season index of 41 points, it is neither a BTC season nor an altcoin season. As BTC crashed closer to $100,000, altcoins took even deeper cuts. ETH led the drop, dipping to $3299.88. BNB returned to $955, while SOL dipped further to $155.

Smaller altcoins remained inactive and range-bound, with small exceptions from pumping tokens and legacy private coins. Despite the occasional recoveries, overall slowdowns in altcoin metrics have continued for six months and are starting to resemble previous crypto winter periods.

Traders also hold the widespread belief that there will not be a market where all assets are rising, regardless of fundamentals or trading profiles. Millions of new tokens were created, and only a small handful have access to liquidity. The slowdown in South Korean markets is also cutting into the growth potential of altcoins.

Despite the favorable altcoin buy signal, there is diminishing demand for potentially illiquid coins and tokens. Even top meme assets like PEPE have lost their on-chain activity, while Solana’s community is now focusing on the ZCash (ZEC) integration.

Altcoins lose appeal as crypto matures

Altcoins extended their series of losses as there are doubts about the return of a regular four-year cycle. In 2025, some altcoins got a boost from treasury companies, but most assets were too risky to be added to reserves.

Altcoin treasuries also used existing reserves from ICOs, team allocations, and whale wallets, and rarely led to open market buying.

The overall expectation is that altcoins will keep losing in BTC terms, and more will be forgotten with no chance of returning.

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