Altcoin season delayed? Technical weakness keeps altcoins below 200-day SMA while Bitcoin dominance rises

Altcoins continue to lag behind Bitcoin as technical weakness and rising BTC dominance prevent a sustained rotation into the broader market.

Summary

• Bitcoin dominance has climbed toward the 58–59% range, absorbing liquidity that would normally fuel an altcoin season.
• Most altcoins are trading well below their 200-day moving averages, showing limited recovery momentum across major exchanges.
• On-chain valuation metrics suggest Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, reinforcing capital concentration in BTC over higher-risk assets.

Altcoins continue to struggle, with technical pressure and capital rotation toward Bitcoin pushing any near-term hopes of an altcoin season further out.

According to a Dec. 18 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain, the average altcoin is now about 27% below its 200-day simple moving average. This level is widely watched by traders and investors, and staying this far below it usually points to sustained weakness rather than a short-lived pullback.

The pressure is visible across major exchanges. The average altcoin is trading about 30.8% below its 200-day moving average on Binance, which has the market’s deepest liquidity. Other major platforms like Bybit, Gate.io, and KuCoin exhibit the same pattern, indicating that this isn’t an isolated problem but rather a market-wide trend.

A few exchanges, like OKX, have held up a bit better, likely because of the types of tokens they list or the way traders tend to position themselves there. Even so, these pockets of strength haven’t been enough to change the bigger trend.

Other venues such as Kraken and Crypto.com have seen steeper losses, which shows how fast liquidity can disappear when confidence in the market starts to weaken.

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Bitcoin dominance continues to drain momentum from altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC) now holds a roughly 58–59% share of the entire cryptocurrency market after a steady increase. Because of this shift, capital hasn’t really rotated into altcoins, which has kept most rallies short-lived and limited to just a handful of names.

As Bitcoin dominance moved through key levels and stayed there, earlier expectations of an imminent altcoin season have largely faded. Before any significant recovery starts, altcoins may still experience further declines if dominance keeps rising toward the 60% threshold.

This more cautious view is supported by market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is has firmly stayed in fear or extreme fear territory, indicating that investors are still hesitant to take on additional risk.

In addition, engagement and speculative trading have reduced by almost half over the past few weeks, indicating a sharp decline in retail interest.

Even industry executives have lowered expectations. Bitget CEO recently stated that an altseason might not happen in 2025 or 2026, citing the limited upside for alts and the increasing focus on Bitcoin and real-world asset exposure.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin resetting, not altcoins rotating

A separate analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV_ helps explain why capital continues to favor Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross for Bitcoin, which measures market value against on-chain transaction activity, recently dropped to extremely low levels close to -0.58. Previously, this area has emerged when prices decline more quickly than network usage.

Since then, the indicator has shifted back toward -0.32, indicating that Bitcoin is still trading at a discount but is gradually catching up to its underlying activity. Rather than aggressive risk-taking, this phase often corresponds with steady accumulation. In the past, setups like this have tended to favor Bitcoin first. Altcoins usually don’t catch a bid until sentiment improves and liquidity starts to return.

Right now, the signals are lining up on both the technical and on-chain side. Bitcoin is still soaking up most of the market’s focus, while altcoins continue to struggle. Until dominance rolls over and investors are willing to take on more risk, any lasting recovery in altcoins is likely on hold.

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