XRP spot ETF approval odds surge to 92% for 2025

XRP ETF probability in 2025 increased to 92%, according to data from Polymarket, due to the shift in market sentiment.

The odds have increased by 22% since early May, with more investors putting more money into approval of an ETF in 2025. Investor excitement around a potential spot XRP ETF is at an all-time high, fueled by recent regulatory, legal, and technological victories that have renewed optimism for its approval in 2025.

XRP spot ETF approval odds-Source: Polymarket

Crypto investors reveal their enthusiasm on XRP ETF approval as odds surge to 92%

Earlier, the SEC delayed making a decision on the CoinShares spot ETF application, deeming investor enthusiasm. Last week, ETF odds were at 83% due to the delayed SEC decision.

Despite this, all eyes are on the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), especially since the agency is widely expected to approve an XRP ETF before the end of the year.

The renewed optimism on Polymarket stems from multiple factors—chief among them being the increasing number of XRP ETF applications currently under SEC review, which is tipping the odds in favor of approval in 2025.

Asset managers, including Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton, have applications for an XRP ETF, and the market anticipates approval this year.

Notably, the major factor behind this excitement is partly because of better relations with Ripple Labs and the SEC. In March 2025, the SEC dropped its years-long lawsuit against Ripple, finally removing a major legal overhang that loomed over the future of XRP.

However, Ripple and the SEC were left to ponder the decision after Judge Torres declined to sign the amended settlement on the grounds of a filing mistake. That has not prevented cryptocurrency investors from finding the fun side of the win from XRP Spot ETF approval in 2025.

Analysts anticipate XRP ETF approval will greatly affect the XRP price

The successes with future products are also helping to increase fan enthusiasm for a pure-play ETF. CME Group’s XRP Futures ETF hit the market in mid-May with remarkable statistics, indicating market maturity.

The optimism for SEC approval in 2025 is gaining traction following Ripple’s wins. A Dubai RLUSD’s approval by financial authorities after a tough licensing process adds to the impressive haul.

Ripple can now integrate RLUSD into the DFSA-licensed payments platform, which uses the XRP Ledger to connect a global payout network. RLUSD provides key benefits like cheaper payment costs, faster settlement times, and regulatory clarity.

Adding to the excitement, crypto exchange Uphold and Flare Networks recently unveiled plans for a DeFi-focused XRP ETF. Meanwhile, Crypto.com has entered the fray with its own XRP ETF product, further boosting investor enthusiasm and raising expectations for a full-fledged spot ETF approval.

However, analysts have contended that the XRP price is expected to be significantly impacted by approving a spot XRP ETF in 2025. With the odds surging, XRP gave a buy signal, gaining close to 6% over the past 24 hours.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the XRP is currently trading at $2.25, reflecting a 1.63% increase in the past 24 hours.

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