Ethereum Price Jumps 10% on Reversal Cues — But History Warns Of A Ceiling

Ethereum price has quietly staged a rebound from its December lows. Since bottoming on December 18, ETH is up more than 10%, reclaiming the $3,000 area, at press time.

This move is not random. A familiar bullish reversal pattern has reappeared on the chart, validating the jump. The same setup triggered a 27% rally earlier this quarter. But there is a catch. That earlier rally failed at a key resistance zone, and Ethereum is now heading back toward the same wall. Whether this rebound extends or stalls depends on what happens next.

Bullish Reversal Returns as Coins Stop Moving

The first signal comes from momentum. Between November 4 and December 18, the Ethereum price made a lower low.

During the same period, the RSI made a higher low. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures buying and selling momentum.

When the price falls, but the RSI improves, it means sellers are losing force even though the price is still declining. This is called bullish divergence, and it often kickstarts trend reversals.

This exact pattern also formed between November 4 and December 1.

After that signal, Ethereum rallied nearly 27% before running into resistance near $3,470.

Bullish Divergence: TradingView

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This time, the momentum signal is being reinforced by on-chain behavior.

The Spent Coins Age Band metric shows how many ETH coins are being moved across both new and old holders. When this metric drops sharply, it means fewer coins are being spent or sold, and more are staying dormant.

On December 19, spent coins activity stood near 431,000 ETH. By December 22, that number collapsed to 32,700 ETH. That is a drop of more than 92% in coins being moved.

Fewer ETH Moving: Santiment

In simple terms, possible ETH sellers have stepped back sharply. Older holders are no longer distributing, and short-term traders are less aggressive. This possible reduction in selling pressure helps explain why the RSI has stabilized, and the price has recovered.

Critical Ethereum Price Levels To Watch

Even with improving momentum, Ethereum still faces major resistance. The first immediate level that matters is $3,040. ETH needs to hold above this area to keep the rebound intact. A loss here would put the recent bounce at risk.

Above that, $3,470 is the key wall, as mentioned earlier.

This level capped the last rally triggered by RSI divergence. If Ethereum fails here again, history would repeat with another rejection.

A clean break and daily close above $3,470 could change the picture.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

That would open the door toward $3,660, followed by $3,910, both major resistance zones from earlier this quarter.

Downside risk still exists. If the Ethereum price loses $2,940, selling pressure could return quickly. Below that, $2,770 becomes the next support, with $2,610 acting as deeper downside protection.

The takeaway is clear. Ethereum has rebounded on a familiar bullish setup, supported by a sharp drop in coin spending. But this rally still needs confirmation. Until $3,470 breaks, the move remains a rebound attempt, not a full trend shift.

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