Ether-Bitcoin ‘Squeeze’ Hints at Imminent Volatility as Ethereum Pectra Upgrade Nears

Crypto traders aiming to profit from a volatility surge should watch the Binance-listed ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio, which could soon experience wild swings, according to a key indicator called Bollinger Bands.

Bollinger Bands are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of an asset’s price.

The so-called Bollinger band squeeze occurs when the bands contract tightly around the price, suggesting low volatility and a period of consolidation. The market typically builds energy during the squeeze, which is eventually released in either direction, leading to a volatility explosion.

The Bollinger Bands on the ETH-BTC chart are now the tightest they have been since June 2020, according to TradingView.

The squeeze indicates that ether could soon experience increased volatility against BTC. Traders watch closely to see which way the price breaks out of the bands because, often, the big move happens in the same direction.

ETH/BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The volatility bullish signal comes as Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, which aims to improve the blockchain’s scalability and validator operations and may sput market activity.

The impending upgrade, due May 7, greatly increases the maximum ETH a validator can stake, from 32 ETH up to 2,048 ETH. It also raises the number of “blob” data units per block from 3 to 6, allowing for a maximum of 9. Additionally, the upgrade will start the transition to the EVM Object Format (EOF), a new structure designed to make smart contracts more efficient.

“Layer-2 networks stand to benefit the most. By doubling blob capacity and making call data more expensive, Pectra solidifies blobs as the standard for rollup data posting. This reinforces Ethereum’s role as a data availability layer and strengthens its rollup-centric scaling strategy,” analytics firm Nansen said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

“DeFi will also see a lift,” the firm noted, saying, NFTs and blockchain games may benefit from the broader improvements.

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