Polymarket’s 2025 prediction markets have over $1 billion wagered on sports betting

As New Year’s Eve is upon us, so too are Polymarket prediction markets for 2025, which are open for traders to bet on events for the next 12 months.

Following the excitement of the 2024 Elections, Sports betting has taken over as the top category for 2025 predictions. In the 2025 section of the site, Traders appear most focused on the 2025 NFL Draft, which leads with $465,998 in bets. Contract participants are monitoring quarterback prospects and broader scouting developments, reflecting the platform’s highest activity level.

However, other prediction markets for 2025 show a significant drop in volume. The next largest contract involves Bitcoin’s price outlook, drawing just $28,640. The odds of the price hitting $120,000 are 70%, and the odds of it falling to $70,000 are 55%. Heading into the new year, Bitcoin sits around $94,000, and the price retaking $100,000 within the next twelve months is at 94%.

The contract on 2025 Federal Reserve action holds $27,507 in wagers, placing an 11% probability on zero rate cuts, 19% on a single 25 basis-point cut, and 29% on two cuts. Another contract gauges the likelihood of a rate hike, currently at 15%. Combined, these figures reveal disparate views on the pace of potential policy shifts ahead of the new administration.

Whether Vladimir Putin will exit the presidency by 2025 indicates a 13% chance, while traders also appear focused on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 71%. In the Middle East, a Netanyahu exit sits at 27%, while the odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader stepping down from power reach 44%. These contracts suggest ongoing, yet meager, demand for hedges related to geopolitical shifts.

Terrifyingly, the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonation by 2025 has a 22% chance, stressing concerns around escalating tensions in multiple regions. However, even a test detonation would qualify.

“For the purpose of this market’s resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a “Yes” resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.”

These geopolitical contracts tie into energy supply factors and possible sanctions that might affect global commodity flows.

Corporate events also figure prominently. The market for determining which company might hold the largest market capitalization in 2025 highlights NVIDIA at 26% and Apple at 36%.

In stablecoin markets, a contract on Tether’s potential depegging stands at 16%, while a question on a potential Tether insolvency holds just an 11% probability.

Polymarket’s largest betting markets

However, outside of the 2025 specific markets, Polymarket’s highest-volume markets also remain focused on sports. The Champions League market indicates a British win, carrying $699,410,841 in wagers. The top teams are Arsenal at 14% and Liverpool at 18%, with Manchester City close at 10%

The NBA Champion contract follows closely at $410,909,837, where the Celtics hold a 26% chance. Another notable soccer market, the Premier League winner, totals $341,757,688, assigning a 71% chance to Liverpool’s triumph and 13% to Arsenal.

In the NBA, the Eastern Conference champion has $239,279,029 riding on the Celtics at 46% and the
Cleveland Cavaliers at 16%.

Sports are potentially set to be Polymarket’s dominant segment through 2025 without a Presidential Election in view. Yet a cross-section of geopolitical and financial contracts collectively illustrates a broad interest in how leadership changes, monetary policy adjustments, and security concerns may evolve.

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