Polymarket: Trump’s lead over Harris up to 15%

Polymarket betting data showed the biggest lead former President Donald Trump has boasted over Kamala Harris since she joined the race.

Less than three weeks before the U.S. presidential election, Polymarket users bet on an approximate 58% chance that Republican candidate Donald Trump will prevail over Democratic ticket holder Kamala Harris. Sentiment on the decentralized prediction market recorded 15 percentage point difference in victory odds, the largest gap between the two presidential frontrunners seen on the platform so far.

As of publishing, the odds of Harris winning the White House had dropped to 43.1%. Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market has been one of the biggest election betting contracts this political cycle. Betting volumes for this outcome neared $2 billion weeks prior to the election on Nov. 4.

You might also like: VP Harris pledges pro-crypto policies for Black investors

Donald Trump, the current leader on Polymarket, has captured the lion’s share of this volume, worth over $561 million, against Harris’ $381 million. Both candidates have fielded policy promises meant to curry favor with crypto voters throughout the campaign. Trump started the trend during a May gala, announcing himself as the crypto president and sharing pro-Bitcoin (BTC) rhetoric ever since.

Harris has taken a more cautious approach, pledging support for “new innovative technologies.” Vice President Harris also released a campaign agenda to champion wealth generation for Black male crypto investors. According to crypto.news, the Harris team said she would back crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks to protect investors and increase access to capital formation services.

Meanwhile, chatter around election contracts on platforms like Polymarket has continued to reach new highs. The Polygon-based venue was integrated into Bloomberg’s terminal, a first for a crypto-native protocol, and was mentioned by billionaire X owner Elon Musk.

Elon being a Polymarket fan never gets old @elonmusk https://t.co/dpufdNKW5Z

— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) October 7, 2024

Market competitors like Kalshi received court approval to list Congressional contracts for U.S. customers, potentially paving the way for offerings around the presidential outcomes. Projects like Wintermute were also reportedly exploring entering the on-chain prediction business.

Source