Polymarket Traders Predict 83% Chance U.S. Government Shutdown Will Extend Beyond October 15

The shutdown started earlier this week following the failure of the budget discussions between the republican and the democrats. BBC news (October 8, 2025) states that the controversy revolves around budget cuts and reversals on social programs in the administration of President Donald Trump. It is one of more than 20 shutdowns since 1976, and the 20182019 shutdown took 35 days and cost the economy estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) more than $11 billion. Analysts have cautioned that the stalemate would extend even beyond two weeks in the event that Congress does not agree on funds to operate before October 15, which is the next major budget target.

UPDATE:

Polymarket traders see an 83% chance the U.S. government shutdown lasts past Oct 15. pic.twitter.com/oTyfRYXJZY

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) October 9, 2025

Economic Impact

According to the estimates presented by economists at The Conversation (October 2, 2025), each week of shutdown is costing the U.S. economy permanent losses of around $3 billion primarily because of the stagnated federal expenditures, postponed grants, and the lack of consumer confidence. With the shutdown continuing until October 15, the total loss of the economy may be up to $6 billion, though there are risks of it growing to 9-12 billion in case it is prolonged to November.

Polymarket has emerged as one of the best decentralized prediction markets which predicts traders sentiment with the help of stablecoins (USDC). In major event forecasts (such as the 2024 U.S. election), it has historically had a 7090% accuracy.
The amount of trading volumes in the closed market currently is reportedly over $2 million indicating an increase in investor interest. The 83 percent probability value is in line with media reports indicating no improvement in Congressional negotiations as of Thursday, October 9, which has supported the sentiment based forecast in the market.

Market Response

The 20182019 shutdown also furloughed 800,000 federal workers and caused a 2.5% decline in the S&P 500 market, as well as a 8 percent decline in Bitcoin, as the shutdown spread uncertainty in both the traditional and the crypto markets.
Analysts are already forecasting the same scenario: in case the shutdown continues after mid-October, the U.S. equities are likely to fall by 3 5 percent, and the crypto-volatility is likely to increase, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum pairs.AQQ

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