New Epstein Documents Fuel High-Stakes Bets on Polymarket and Kalshi

After a flood of documents and photographs from the Jeffrey Epstein files dropped this month, even more material from the sprawling archive is expected to roll out under a U.S. Department of Justice release required by the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Since then, a Polymarket wager titled “Who will be named in newly released Epstein files?” has drawn attention, with the current front-runner being the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

Prediction Marketplace Traders Price In Curiosity as Epstein Files Drive Market Action

There is already a long roster of luminaries, influencers, politicians, royalty, and celebrities tied to Jeffrey Epstein in one way or another through flight logs, court filings, photographs, and calendars, including former President Bill Clinton, current President Donald Trump, Prince Andrew, the late New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former Israeli PM Ehud Barak, Woody Allen, Michael Jackson, David Copperfield, Kevin Spacey, and Chris Tucker, among several figures whose names have surfaced over the years.

With the latest Department of Justice (DOJ) releases, bettors have flocked to Polymarket to handicap which additional names might surface in the newly released documents. At the time of writing, the specific wager has attracted $2.71 million in volume since launch, with Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk sitting atop today’s leaderboard. What started as a prediction market has effectively become a notoriety pageant, as traders slap eyebrow-raising probabilities on some of the most recognizable names on the planet.

Polymarket wager as of Dec. 23, 2025, at 4 p.m. Eastern time.

To be clear, these odds simply reflect market mood, chatter, and pure speculation—not findings of guilt, misconduct, or confirmed involvement. None of the individuals listed have been accused of wrongdoing, and merely brushing elbows with Epstein or his close associate Ghislaine Maxwell does not imply awareness of the crimes he or she committed. Even so, the leaderboard reads like a roll call of politics, media, finance, and Hollywood, and traders are unmistakably casting their votes with cash.

Right behind Musk is Stephen Colbert, the longtime CBS late-night satirist, at 96%. Colbert was leading earlier today and Polymarket posted about the matter on X. A sizable drop follows with Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, sitting at 68%. From there, the odds thin out quickly, dipping into the mid-20% range and below as traders hedge their bets across a wide cast of public figures.

The mid-tier includes Ellen DeGeneres at 26%, Piers Morgan at 25%, and Al Gore also at 25%. Close behind are Kirsten Gillibrand at 24% and Robert Downey Jr. at 22%. These are followed by David Koch at 22% and Anderson Cooper at 21%.

Lower on the board—but still very much in the market’s imagination—are Oprah Winfrey at 20%, Jamie Dimon at 21%, and Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs at 18%. Rounding things out are Tom Hanks at 17%, Quentin Tarantino at 14%, Henry Kissinger at roughly 15%, Rachel Maddow at 11%, and Jimmy Kimmel at 12%.

Kalshi Zeroes In on Attorneys General, FBI Chiefs, and Beltway Power

Then there’s Kalshi’s market asking “Who will attend the Epstein depositions?” which reads less like a red carpet and more like a reunion tour for former attorneys general, FBI directors, and seasoned political operators.

Kalshi bet as of Dec. 23, 2025, at 4 p.m. Eastern time.

Set against Polymarket’s celebrity-forward theater, the Kalshi contract leans hard into legal heft and Beltway résumés. So far, the bet has seen $54,105 in volume since it was created. The odds are consistently low, suggesting traders see attendance as a long shot—but not so far-fetched that it can be dismissed outright. As with all prediction markets, these percentages capture trader expectations, not confirmed plans, subpoenas, or legal outcomes.

At the top of the list sits Hillary Clinton at 7%. Clinton served as first lady, U.S. senator from New York, and secretary of state, cementing her status as one of the most influential political figures of the past three decades. Sharing that 7% slot is Loretta Lynch, who led the Justice Department during President Barack Obama’s second term and presided over several headline-grabbing federal investigations.

Also read: Crypto Traders Cry Foul as Bitcoin Lags Behind a Red-Hot Gold, Silver and Stock Market

Next is James Comey at 5%, the former FBI director best known for his role in the 2016 election probes and his subsequent firing by President Trump. Just below him is Bill Clinton at 4%, the 42nd president of the United States, whose past ties to Epstein have been extensively documented and repeatedly examined. Also at 4% is Merrick Garland, the sitting attorney general and former federal judge, though traders have recently nudged his odds lower.

Further down the probability ladder, expectations thin out quickly. Jeff Sessions clocks in with effectively negligible odds, hovering near zero despite his former role as the nation’s top law enforcement official. Alberto Gonzales is priced below 1%, signaling scant trader belief that the George W. Bush-era attorney general would appear in depositions. Robert Mueller, who led the Russia investigation, stands at 1%, alongside Eric Holder at 1%, with both seeing their odds drift lower in recent trading.

All told, the competing markets sketch a familiar picture: prediction traders are chasing intrigue more than certainty, blending rumor, reputation, and résumé into a single price tag. Whether it’s celebrity name recognition on Polymarket or institutional pedigree on Kalshi, the odds serve as a snapshot of collective curiosity rather than a preview of courtroom reality. For now, wallets—not warrants—are doing the talking, and the markets reflect fascination, not a verdict.

FAQ ❓

• What are the Epstein prediction markets tracking? They track trader expectations on who might be named in Epstein-related document releases or attend depositions, based on public information and speculation.
• Why are Elon Musk and political figures showing high odds? Odds reflect market sentiment, notoriety, and trading activity—not evidence, accusations, or confirmed involvement.
• What’s the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi’s Epstein markets? Polymarket leans toward celebrity-focused speculation, while Kalshi centers on legal and political figures tied to government roles.
• Do prediction market odds imply wrongdoing? Absolutely not. These probabilities represent trader beliefs only, and if they are named in documents and they do not indicate guilt, legal action, or verified plans of such.

Source