Markets predict 36% probability of crypto executive order today, 56% chance of Bitcoin reserve

President-elect Donald Trump made many promises to the Bitcoin and crypto communities during his presidential run. As he is sworn in for a second term later today, we look at which of them will most likely come to fruition.

After successfully choosing the winner of the US election, Polymarket traders are now attempting to predict where he will follow through on his promises.

Polymarket data shows high expectations around pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, along with possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Traders are also watching whether new tariffs will be imposed on Mexico or Canada and whether an executive order on crypto will appear on Day 1.

Prediction Chance Volume Trump will create a Bitcoin Reserve in the first 100 days 56% $2,598,422 Over 40 Executive Orders signed on Day 1 64% $536,229 January 6 protestors pardoned in first 100 days 99% $7,952,113 Trump will save TikTok in first week 92% $327,345 Trump will end the Ukraine war in the first 90 days 34% $9,281,609 Trump will issue a crypto executive order on Day 1 36% $193,914 January 6 protestors pardoned on Day 1 92% $119,449 Trump will sign a national abortion ban 20% $605,920 Gulf of Mexico renamed to “Gulf of America.” 66% $73,021 25% tariff imposed on Mexico/Canada 31% $448,663 Trump will acquire Greenland in 2025 20% $798,726 Trump will declassify JFK assassination files 75% $512,872

Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1. Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.

There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite prior legislation mandating its sale or ban, an outcome with a 92% likelihood by the end of the first week. Another high-chance scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, evaluated at 64%.

Will Trump deliver on crypto promises?

Crypto-oriented moves rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, though their likelihood is lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve holds only a 56% probability in the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.

More likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassifying of the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29. It is also more likely (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”

Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days holds a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns just a 31% likelihood that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% chance, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.

Some of these items, such as pardons or many executive orders, may occur with little procedural delay. Others, including foreign policy shifts or territorial acquisitions, often involve extensive negotiations.

Ultimately, Polymarket traders appear more bullish on a pro-crypto administration than ever before. While they are unconvinced major reform will come within the first 100 days, sentiment is clearly more positive than that of any previous administration.

Outcomes that fail to materialize quickly may still resurface later in Trump’s term. Polymarket data is fluid, and odds may shift if official statements or early actions reveal a different policy focus.

The pace of executive activity can be fast during the first week of a new term, so any early signals may influence how participants wager on each scenario. These markets open a new avenue for those interested in US politics as Polymarket data moves fast on any breaking news, making it an increasingly helpful barometer for policy change.

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