Exclusive interview: Arthur Hayes opens up on Bitcoin Reserve, meme coins, and trade wars

US President Donald Trump just added Bitcoin to the US Strategic Reserve, but Arthur Hayes isn’t buying the hype. He sees it as political posturing and a way to woo crypto voters ahead of the 2026 midterms while doing the bare minimum to keep inflation under control.

In an exclusive interview with Cryptopolitan, Arthur Hayes—CIO of Maelstrom, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most outspoken figures in the crypto world—doesn’t mince words when it comes to the future of BTC and all the things that are weighing it down.

With US-China tensions rising and tariffs making a comeback, could Bitcoin become a weapon in the new Cold War? Let’s dig in more with Hayes who thinks China might already be ahead in the BTC accumulation race.

Bitcoin’s Wall Street takeover?

With Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and political backing, many are celebrating what seems like the asset’s golden era. However, Hayes sees the flip side, warning that this mainstreaming could strip BTC of its rebel DNA and turn it into just another Wall Street asset.

He believes that “Bitcoin is a bearer asset with a finite supply that cannot be altered by government or central bank diktat. It is the complete opposite of any TradFi asset which, even if it is in finite supply like equities, relies on the legal fiction woven by governments and enforced by men with guns.”

We asked him if big banks would kill off stablecoin issuers like Tether or if regulators could shut down all stablecoins, bank-issued or not.

He stood firm on Tether’s survival and highlighted that Tether is too big to kill because a disorderly unwind of their hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US Treasury securities would roil the market.

“Tether is mostly used by non-Americans, US bank will issue a stablecoin in its first instance to service US persons. Therefore, Tether’s dominance will not be challenged,”

said Hayes.

Is Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve a smart move or a gimmick?

Bitcoin and other top altcoins got an official call to be included in a government reserve. We asked Arthur whether this is the first step toward a Bitcoin-backed financial system or just political theater.

He pointed out that “Trump and the Republican party have a tough mid-term election coming up in 2026. Trump needs to keep crypto investors on side so they show up with campaign donations and at the ballot box.”

He added “But on the other hand, Trump can’t have inflation running wild, so wanton money printing, which would send Bitcoin quickly to new all-time highs, cannot be pursued because inflation harms all Americans. Trump will do the minimum necessary to gain the support of crypto investors.”

President Trump Travels to Texas. Taken on January 12, 2021. Photo by Trump White House Archived via Flickr.

Hayes believes China’s local governments have been mining Bitcoin for years and may already be ahead in accumulating reserves.

He said that “the roughly 200,000 Bitcoin the US government seized or stole from individuals is what is going into the reserve. It is very possible that the Chinese government holds more Bitcoin than that.”

Bitcoin as a trade war weapon?

With rising US-China tensions and the return of aggressive tariffs, Bitcoin could become a strategic tool for countries to bypass financial sanctions and tariffs. We asked Arthur if we could see governments weaponizing BTC in global trade.

He thinks Bitcoin is becoming a key tool for economic resistance.

“Bitcoin will become the only way that balkanized economic blocs can be financially connected. In the near future, the major economic blocs will begin blocking the ability for capital to flow freely outside of their borders. At that point, Bitcoin, given that anyone with an internet connection can use it, will be the only way that citizens from different blocs can financially interact with each other,” he added.

If global supply chains get disrupted again due to tariffs and economic nationalism, could that push businesses and individuals toward Bitcoin as a borderless asset?

Maelstrom CIO suggested that “the balkanization of trade and finance is inflationary as every country must replicate production. The increase in productive capacity cannot be funded out of savings alone; therefore, fiat money printing will be used to finance this build out.”

“Bitcoin benefits as the amount of global fiat credit expands. That is how Bitcoin benefits in a global trade war,” he further added.

We’ve seen El Salvador going big on BTC, but they’re small. Which major nation do you think will be the first to shift a major part of their reserves into Bitcoin?

Despite El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment, Hayes doubts any major economy will make Bitcoin its primary reserve asset. “It doesn’t make any sense for a government to ditch the privilege of issuing its own currency by fiat.”

Arthur Hayes and Changpeng Zhao. Photo by Maelstrom via X.

Are meme coins the real central bank killers?

Forget BTC and ETH, meme coins are moving faster and creating more liquidity than some national currencies. Meanwhile, we have also seen more scams and hacks in the shadow of the meme coins explosion.

Would it be possible to see a future where such coins disrupt fiat systems more than BTC? We asked Hayes, who frequently places his bets on social media.

He indicated that “Meme coins will redirect investment flows from investments deemed suitable by the elites, to whatever is hot in the metaverse.”

However, he thinks that this will frustrate the ability of baby boomers to dump their financial assets on the youth because the youth would rather buy a meme coin than a stock.

During the recent election season, the market saw Trump and Biden-themed coins explode overnight. I asked for Arthur Hayes’s take on political parties officially launching their meme cryptos to raise funds and influence voters.

He sees the real meme coin wars heating up during the 2026 midterm elections. “They are the perfect campaign financing tool for young aspiring politicians facing off against the gerontocracy,” he stated

While meme coins may be more popular, Hayes says governments have one undeniable advantage in pushing CBDCs.

“Governments that are serious about CBDCs will mandate that taxes be paid in them. Given that you must pay your taxes or get shot in the head, they will gain adoption alongside or in spite of meme coins,” Hayes added.

Crypto’s next Black Swan?

Hayes made waves in 2023 when he predicted the banking crisis. We asked him what the next major crypto shock could be, and he pointed towards a world war.

“The Europeans are now hell bent on gearing up for war given Trump wants to find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine/Russia war. What if there is a nuclear exchange between Europe (NATO) and Russia?”

he stated.

Arthur Hayes has said that AI would prefer Bitcoin because of its energy-backed nature. But let’s go deeper, what’s the wildest scenario you see where AI and crypto collide?

He envisions a near future where AI agents control financial transactions, on and off-chain. Hayes mentioned that “Humans will rely on AI agents to conduct all of their financial transactions, which will exist all on-chain in the near future.” He added “I’m talking about both native crypto and TradFi assets.”

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