This historical pattern sets date when Bitcoin will hit $300,000

Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price cycle has the potential to culminate in an all-time high of about $300,000 in the coming months, according to observations by a cryptocurrency trading expert.

Gert van Lagen noted that Bitcoin will likely hit the target by March 30, 2025, in a projection guided by the Elliott Wave Theory, a framework used to identify repetitive cycles in financial markets, he said in an X post on January 11.

“Bitcoin’s bull market since 2009 is projected to peak at ~$300K by March 30, 2025,” he said.

If this price level is attained, it will mark a price growth of almost 220% from the current valuation, placing Bitcoin’s market cap at approximately $6 trillion.

Van Lagen’s analysis categorized Bitcoin’s price journey since 2009 into five distinct waves. Each wave represents a phase of market psychology, moving through periods of euphoria, correction, and consolidation.

The present phase, termed the “blow-off wave,” has been unfolding since 2019. Historically, these blow-off waves have exhibited steep upward trends, forming angles of at least 78 degrees on logarithmic charts, a recurring indicator of a market’s final explosive rally.

The concept of Bitcoin blocks also plays a crucial role in this forecast. Bitcoin blocks are units of data added to the blockchain roughly every ten minutes. Van Lagen’s analysis identified block 890,000 as a critical marker where the blow-off wave is projected to peak.

The network has reached block 878,654 (as of January 10, 2025), leaving approximately 79 days until block 890,000 is mined. This timeline aligns with a projected price of $300,000, corresponding to the upper boundary of a long-term trendline that has guided Bitcoin’s price movement for over a decade.

What next for Bitcoin price

Although the target of $300,000 sounds ambitious, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has offered a more realistic prediction of Bitcoin hitting $140,000.

In an X post on January 11, Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin could be forming a bull pennant, a bullish continuation signal. This formation, marked by consolidation after an upward surge, hints at a breakout toward $140,000 if resistance near $100,000 is breached.

Additionally, Fibonacci extensions support targets between $115,000 and $140,000, challenging bearish expectations. Indeed, the $140,000 target closely aligns with another projection by prominent online trading expert TradingShot, who noted that Bitcoin is forming a similar pattern witnessed in early 2024, suggesting the digital currency could peak at $150,000 soon.

It’s worth noting Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in the past week after briefly touching the $102,000 mark. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin has maintained its price above the crucial $90,000 support.

Amid the current bearish sentiment, a section of the market expects the maiden cryptocurrency to nearly double this year, driven by hopes of clearer regulations under the Donald Trump administration.

However, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory could pose challenges after offering a hawkish outlook for 2025. The Fed has hinted at fewer cuts than anticipated, tempering optimism as rate cuts historically support Bitcoin, while hikes tend to weigh its price.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin was trading at $94,401 by press time, having made modest gains of about 0.12% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly chart, BTC has plunged over 7%.

At the current valuation, Bitcoin is showing bearish sentiments in the short term, considering the asset’s price is slightly below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $96,585 but well above the 200-day SMA of $73,592, indicating long-term bullish momentum.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 47.01 shows neutral momentum, while moderate volatility at 3.62% suggests stable price movement. Despite a bearish sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index at 69 (Greed) reflects market optimism around Bitcoin.

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