Brandt Says 30 Weeks Since Bitcoin Non-Convincing ATH, Drop of 75% Looming

Veteran trader Peter Brandt points out that Bitcoin (BTC) has not set an all-time high (ATH) in over 30 weeks, a pattern that often leads to severe market declines.

Brandt disclosed this in his latest analysis despite his generally bullish outlook for BTC. The analyst’s recent report suggests the ongoing market trend could follow previous ones where an asset collapses 75% after failing to breach its ATH for 30 weeks.

Bitcoin Struggles Below ATH

For context, Bitcoin hit its latest all-time high above $73K in early March. However, following this peak, a correction ensued. Bitcoin has since failed to transcend this retracement due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

Despite demonstrating resilience, BTC is currently 18% down from the ATH. Meanwhile, data from the chart below confirms that this week would mark the 30th week since Bitcoin dropped from the $73K all-time high.

Bitcoin 1W Chart

According to Brandt, classic market trends suggest Bitcoin could face further bearishness in the near future. Data from his chart shows that BTC is hovering near its 8-week simple moving average (SMA), which stands at $60,998.

A Ranging Market

The failure to decisively break beyond this MA could signal weakness. For the past several months, Bitcoin has traded within a tight range, struggling to make a decisive move upward. Brandt sees this consolidation as a precursor to a downward move.

BTC 1W Chart | Peter Brandt

The analyst’s chart also points out a long-term resistance trendline that Bitcoin has struggled to break above. BTC has made multiple attempts to rally, but each time it has faltered.

Further, the trading volume does not show any signs of strong conviction in either direction. The volume moving average currently sits at 277,967 BTC. If Brandt’s 75% collapse begins from the current price, BTC could drop to $15K, levels last seen in Q4 2022.

Contrasting Opinions

In response to Brandt’s assertions, veteran trader Mike Alfred made a contrasting opinion. Alfred suggested that Brandt’s focus on chart patterns rather than Bitcoin’s strength could lead to missing the premier crypto asset’s long-term potential.

Are you a bitcoiner or a chart trader? Eventually you have to choose or you will have less Bitcoin. I remember what you said in October 2023 about what BTC could do vividly. Bitcoin does not follow anyone’s rules.

— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) October 11, 2024

He pointed out that Bitcoin often defies technical analysis, largely due to its unique position in the global financial system.

According to Alfred, Bitcoin’s future remains bright as long as governments continue printing money. He noted that the firstborn crypto asset operates under different rules than traditional assets and should not be evaluated solely on past patterns.

However, Brandt maintained his observations. He revealed that Bitcoin is the largest asset in his personal portfolio, indicating that his analysis is not about shorting the market but making a realistic assessment.

The analyst had previously suggested BTC could hit $150K this cycle as its top price. However, Brandt often uses the “strong opinions, weakly held” mantra to confirm that he can alter his opinions based on changing market conditions. At press time, Bitcoin trades for $60,607, down 3.51% this week.

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