Boring Bitcoin’s Green Light Moment Incoming?

This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

The Fed has come and gone without moving the needle on bitcoin’s BTC$92,534.21 price in any meaningful way. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but supposedly delivered hawkish forward guidance. Still, the dollar has been sold off.

Amid all this, BTC continues to bore traders with its directionless price action.

The picture on the daily price chart remains largely unchanged since before the Fed, with prices still stuck in that countertrend mini-rising channel within the bigger downtrend.

Any seasoned technical trader would tell you the playbook is simple now. If we break above the bearish trendline, it signals that the downtrend from the record high has ended. On the flip side, if we dive below the mini ascending channel, it reinforces the broader downtrend, potentially leading to deeper losses.

BTC’s daily price chart with key indicators. (TradingView)

Which way will it go? As of writing, the bull case looks appealing, as the MACD histogram, with parameters set to (50,100,9) to gauge the medium-to-long term, is on the verge of crossing above zero (flashing green signal). Positive MACD crossovers indicate a renewed bullish momentum.

The dollar index, one of BTC’s top nemesis, has taken a hit since the Fed meeting, undermining the central bank’s supposedly hawkish tone. The DXY fell to 98.13 on Thursday, the lowest since Oct. 17 and was last seen at 98.36. A weaker dollar tends to bode well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Dollar Index’s daily chart. (TradingView)

More importantly, the DXY’s MACD histogram has flipped negative, indicating a bearish shift in momentum.

Nasdaq has found its footing after the November drop and now trades above the widely tracked 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages, offering bullish signals for the crypto market. Lastly, BTC sellers look to have run out of steam, as prices continue to hold steady despite reports that the U.S. Senate’s crypto market structure bull has hit a roadblock.

If BTC prices do break out, several resistance levels between $97,000 and $108,000, identified by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) and the Ichimoku Cloud, would come into focus.

That said, ETF flows remain a concern. As noted on Thursday, there hasn’t been a single day of net inflows exceeding $500 million in the past month. While prices have stabilized since Nov. 20, cumulative net inflows since the final week of November amount to just $219 million, according to data from SoSoValue. That’s a paltry figure compared with the billions in redemptions seen through October and early November.

While Nasdaq trading above its key averages is good news for the BTC bulls, the cryptocurrency’s correlation with the tech index has become lopsided. Bitcoin drops more sharply when the Nasdaq falls, yet rises only modestly on Nasdaq rallies.

So, we cannot completely rule out a potential bear case in BTC, involving a breakdown below the mini ascending channel. Such a move would expose support around $80,000.

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