Bitcoin Tests $109K Cost Basis: Glassnode Warns of Make-or-Break Level

Glassnode has announced that Bitcoin (BTC) has again crossed the 0.85 cost-basis quantile zone, which is located at roughly 109,000. This stage has traditionally been a major make or break region of Bitcoin market structure and usually indicate the direction of the next big movement.

#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://t.co/xx6188EzD2 pic.twitter.com/1ZrDVmrZ0Q

— glassnode (@glassnode) October 31, 2025

The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model of Glassnode indicated that the band of 0.85 is the mid-point of a resistance and support that is represented by the presence of a substantial number of investors at that cost basis point.

Once the price of Bitcoin is maintained above this level, it is likely to launch new rallies. But in case of the failure, the BTC historically falls off to the 0.75 cost-basis band, which is now close to the 98,000.

Historical Trends Show Rally Potential or Pullback Risk

The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model divides market participants of Bitcoin in terms of realized price, and shows the mean cost-basis distribution among cohorts.

The model can be seen to have several interactions between the market price of BTC and these cost-basis quantiles over the last two years. The 0.85 line was surpassed in the first part of the year 2024, and the price started to soar, reaching more than $90K. Following every time BTC was able to re-take this band, new all-time highs were realized.

On the other hand, upon losing momentum at the 0.85 level, Bitcoin frequently reversed to the 0.75 quantile that has in the past served as a buffer in the downfall. That range, currently close to $98K, is the cumulative cost base of longer term holders and represents where the accumulation strain tends to revert.

Cost-Basis Levels Mark a Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears

In the model provided by Glassnode, the following three significant quantile bands are evident:

• 0.95 band (red line): is high-end cost basis, which is almost in the 200K range, which is at the price ranges of the high-end buyers.
• 0.85 band (cyan line): at the moment, approximately 109K, which is the nearest pivot point of Bitcoin.
• 0.75 band (orange line): Around 98K which is the lower risk threshold where the demand is most likely to pick up.

With the black BTC price line on the chart nearing the 0.85 band, traders are keenly observing whether, Bitcoin will maintain its hold above the crucial band or move back into the range of consolidation.

Bitcoin Market Outlook: $109K Remains the Decisive Level

Glassnode highlighted how the key indicator of the 0.85 cost-basis band has sparked significant rallies in the past, and a drop to 0.75 band frequently resulted in a downward spiral. As Bitcoin walks on the edge with volatility rising in the market, analysts believe that the next action will see BTC either regain a bullish channel or plunge to a deeper correction stage.

Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow band around this level, and therefore, $109K is one of the major psychological and technical points that investors should consider into November.

Source