Bitcoin rebounds to $115K after weekend selloff; Institutional ETF flows in focus

• Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to trade above $115,000 after a selloff that saw over $1B in liquidations.
• The recent correction was driven by weak US jobs data and a new wave of US tariffs.
• QCP Capital views the selloff as a “leverage flush,” noting that the broader structural setup for BTC remains intact.

Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a modest rebound as the East Asian trading day gets underway, changing hands at just over the $115,000 mark.

This recovery comes after a punishing selloff last week that saw over $1 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated and the leading cryptocurrency briefly test the $113,000 level.

While the bounce is a welcome sign for bulls, the market remains on edge, with investors carefully weighing signs of institutional stabilization against persistent macroeconomic fears.

The aftermath of a ‘leverage flush’: a cautious optimism

The latest market correction, which marked Bitcoin’s third consecutive Friday selloff, was fueled by a hawkish macroeconomic cocktail.

Weaker-than-expected US jobs data, combined with a fresh wave of tariffs announced by Washington, triggered a broader “risk-off” mood that hit both equities and crypto.

Altcoins bore the brunt of this downward move, with Solana (SOL) falling nearly 20% on the week and Ethereum (ETH) losing close to 10%.

Despite this sharp drop, some market observers, like trading firm QCP Capital, remain cautiously optimistic. “The broader structural setup remains intact,” the firm wrote in a Monday note, pointing to the fact that Bitcoin had achieved its highest-ever monthly close in July.

QCP views the recent selloff not as a fundamental trend reversal, but rather as a necessary “leverage flush”—a painful but healthy shakeout of over-leveraged positions that has historically cleared the path for renewed accumulation and the next leg higher.

Hedging and headwinds: investors still price in downside risk

That said, market hedging behavior suggests that investors are not yet ruling out the possibility of deeper downside.

On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are currently assigning a 49% probability that Bitcoin will dip below the $100,000 mark before the end of 2025.

This represents a 2 percentage point increase from the day prior, indicating that near-term anxiety is still very much present.

This pricing reflects a market that is still on a knife’s edge.

Downside tail risk is clearly being priced in, despite a host of supportive long-term fundamentals, which include increasing regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and a wave of real-world asset tokenization initiatives.

The next major catalyst for the market could come during the Asia trading day, as US issuers report their latest ETF flow data, which typically happens by mid-day Hong Kong time.

The market’s stabilization appears to be supported by some early positive signs on this front, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record last Friday.

If these ETF inflows continue to show strength and implied volatility begins to compress, it may provide the confirmation that the market needs to fully embrace the “buy-the-dip” narrative and shake off the macro jitters that have kept it stuck in neutral.

Broader market snapshot

• BTC: Bitcoin is trading back above $115,000, signaling early signs of market stabilization after a volatile week.

• ETH: Ether is holding steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence that it will break above the $4,000 mark sometime in August.

• Gold: Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session on Monday, rising to a two-week high. The move was driven by soft US economic data, which has boosted expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. CME traders are now pricing in an 86% chance of that happening.

• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to sharply increase tariffs on Indian exports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.

• S&P 500: US stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.47% to 6,329.94. The move snapped a four-day losing streak and marked the index’s best single session since May.

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