Bitcoin price rebound signals start of Q4 rally, $180K in play by year-end: Analysis

Bitcoin price has rebounded from September lows as rising volumes, institutional inflows, and supportive technicals fuel expectations of a Q4 rally.

Summary

• Bitcoin price rebounded to $114,603, up 2.5% in 24 hours, supported by rising trading volume and institutional inflows.
• Analysts say late-September gains mark the start of a potential Q4 rally, with some forecasting new highs near $180K.
• On-chain data shows accumulation by long-term holders, reduced exchange reserves, and improving technical signals.

After a volatile September, Bitcoin has gained momentum as it enters the last quarter of 2025, rising back above $114,000. Bitcoin was up 2.5% in the last day, trading at $114,603 at the time of writing. The most popular cryptocurrency is currently only 7.7% below its peak of $124,128 on Aug. 14.

Additionally, market activity has significantly increased. Following weeks of muted sentiment, the daily trading volume for Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 70% to $58.8 billion in the last 24 hours, indicating a resurgence of investor activity.

Bitcoin expected to rally into Q4

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan explained that Bitcoin’s sharp rebound in late September was no coincidence. The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 interest rate cut weakened the U.S. dollar and lifted gold to new highs, setting the stage for Bitcoin to benefit as a digital alternative.

As per XWIN’s observation, capital often flows into gold first before rotating into Bitcoin as risk appetite improves, and the same pattern played out last month.

Institutional demand added fuel. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s relaxation of Exchange Traded Fund listing rules boosted confidence, leading to new XRP (XRP) and DOGE (DOGE) products and steady inflows into major funds like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.

XWIN concluded that these shifts, combined with reduced selling from both short- and long-term holders, show that the September rally was not a random bounce but the beginning of a stronger phase heading into Q4.

Bitcoin accumulation points to higher targets

Another CryptoQuant contributor, Carmelo Alemán, highlighted broader on-chain signals that reinforce the bullish case. Over the course of the last year, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has increased from $870 billion to $1.07 trillion, driven by average daily inflows of $385 million. Global liquidity is still growing, and large wallets and miners are gradually building up.

According to Alemán, these factors suggest that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase prior to a subsequent leg up, with Q4 probably bringing new all-time highs. He went further, predicting that if institutional inflows and liquidity trends hold, Bitcoin could hit $180,000 before the year is out.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

These views are also supported by the charts. The most recent recovery was triggered by oversold relative strength index levels in September, and Bitcoin has maintained strong support between $108,000 and $110,000.

Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Moving averages across all major timeframes are now flashing buy signals, suggesting the broader trend is tilted upward. Resistance remains at the $118,000 level, followed by the August all-time high around $124,000.

If these barriers are cleared, analysts argue that a rally toward $150,000 to $180,000 by year-end is plausible, provided liquidity inflows and institutional interest continue.

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