Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Hits $122K as ETF Inflows and Geopolitical Risk Drive Breakout

After a brief consolidation phase near $118K, Bitcoin price has broken decisively higher, climbing to a new multi-week high above $122,000. This move follows renewed ETF inflows, strong on-chain accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainty triggered by President Trump’s 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico. Traders are now eyeing the $125K–$130K resistance range as the next key hurdle.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Table: July 15, 2025

Indicator/Zone Level / Signal Bitcoin price today $122,194 Resistance 1 $125,500 Resistance 2 $130,000 Support 1 $118,200 Support 2 $114,000 RSI (30-min) 68.3 (Cooling from overbought) MACD (30-min) Bullish with rising histogram Bollinger Bands (4H) Expanded, breakout structure EMA Cluster (4H: 20/50/100/200) All below price (Strongly bullish) Supertrend (1D) Bullish above $112,357 DMI (1D) +DI leads, ADX rising ETF Net Inflows (24H) +$309M (Strong accumulation) Open Interest $88.22B (+6.4%) Volume (24H) $115.6B (+123%)

What’s Happening With Bitcoin’s Price?

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The breakout comes after a textbook bull flag resolution visible on the daily and 4-hour charts. Price has surged from the $114K–$115K support zone and now trades cleanly above all major EMAs (20/50/100/200) on the 4-hour chart. The Supertrend indicator on the daily has flipped bullish above $112,357, further confirming the current trend structure.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) analysis on the weekly chart shows a fresh Break of Structure (BOS) above $120,000, invalidating the prior bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) seen near $108K. BTC also cleared the previous weak high and is targeting a higher liquidity zone near $125K.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are expanding with price pushing the upper band near $122K, a classic volatility breakout structure. BTC is also well above the mean band at $115.7K, indicating a momentum-led move.

Why Is The Bitcoin Price Going Up Today?

BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow Data (Source: Coinglass)

Why Bitcoin price going up today centers on three drivers: geopolitical hedging, ETF-driven inflows, and bullish derivatives positioning.

The macro environment shifted sharply after President Trump announced steep tariffs effective August 1. This reignited fears of a U.S.–EU trade war, prompting institutional hedging via crypto. At the same time, BTC spot inflow data from Coinglass shows a massive +$309M net inflow on July 14, the highest single-day spike since March.

BTC Derivative Analysis (Source: Coinglass)

From a derivatives perspective, total open interest has climbed 6.4% to $88.22B, with volume surging 123% to over $115B. The long/short ratio remains favorable to bulls, especially on Binance where top trader positions show a dominant 1.83 long bias.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

On the 30-minute chart, the RSI peaked at 78.9 before slightly cooling to 68.3 – a healthy sign of intraday reset without structural damage. MACD remains deeply positive, signaling sustained buying momentum despite short-term overbought conditions.

BTC Trend Signals: Volatility Breakout and Bullish Confirmation Across Indicators

BTC Market Cap Dominance (Source: TradingView)

BTC dominance is approaching a critical apex around 65%, nearing a multi-year symmetrical triangle breakout on the weekly dominance chart. A resolution to the upside could trigger a broader rotation out of altcoins and back into BTC, adding further fuel to the rally.

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Directional Movement Index (DMI) on the daily is also strongly bullish. The +DI (40.86) has pulled far away from the -DI (22.79), while ADX (10.39) is rising — a clear sign of a strong trending phase. This indicator stack reinforces the view that BTC is entering a momentum breakout environment.

Importantly, the structure of the market remains in favor of bulls. Liquidity zones between $103K and $108K now act as strong support following the breakout. Spot buyers continue to dominate, with BTC reclaiming all key resistance zones over the past 10 days.

BTC Price Prediction: Short-Term Outlook (24H)

Bitcoin price today shows bullish continuation patterns on both higher and lower timeframes. The next resistance lies near $125,500, which marks the mid-supply zone from a prior failed breakout in late 2024. Beyond that, bulls may aim for $130K and the extended Fibonacci projection at $136K, a level echoed by Ledn CEO John Glover as a possible year-end target.

On the downside, immediate support rests at $118.2K (20 EMA 4H) and $117.7K (50 EMA). A failure to hold this zone could trigger a minor pullback toward the $114K–$115K range. However, unless U.S. CPI data on July 17 surprises to the upside, momentum remains firmly with the bulls.

Traders should monitor inflation data and Fed tone closely. If CPI cools as expected, risk-on flows could extend BTC’s upside leg into $125K+ by midweek.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

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