Bitcoin Price Prediction: $120B Whale Cost Basis Grows as RSI Drops

Bitcoin’s price prediction debate is splitting between accumulation and momentum signals. CryptoQuant data shows new whale realized cap racing higher into 2026, while a separate weekly chart shows Bitcoin sliding to the low $82,000s with RSI pressing into a historically low zone.

BTC realized cap for new whales spikes into 2026

New Bitcoin whale wallets expanded their realized cap sharply at the end of the chart, rising toward about $120 billion as BTC price stayed near the top of its range. CryptoQuant’s “BTC: Realized Cap for New Whales” graphic shows the purple area barely visible until 2021, then growing slowly through 2022 and 2023 before turning higher in 2024.

BTC Realized Cap for New Whales. Source: CryptoQuant/ X

Then the curve steepened. Through 2025, the new whale realized cap accelerated from a modest base into a near vertical climb, ending close to the top of the left axis. Meanwhile, the black price line climbed into 2025 and then moved sideways near the 80K to 100K zone on the right axis, with a slight dip at the far right as the purple area continued rising.

Earlier cycles look different on the same chart. Price surged into 2017, dropped through 2018, and recovered into 2021 before sliding in 2022. However, the new whale realized cap did not show comparable scale in those years, because the series only starts to build meaningfully from 2021 onward and remains relatively flat until the late 2024 to 2025 transition.

As a result, the image highlights a widening gap: large, newer holders increased their aggregate cost basis rapidly, while spot price advanced more gradually and then consolidated near the highs.

Bitcoin weekly RSI drops toward prior cycle lows as BTC slides to $82,550 on Coinbase

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell toward the lower end of its multi year range as BTC pulled back to about $82,550 on Coinbase, according to a TradingView chart shared on X by account Nexus. The screenshot shows the latest weekly candle with an open near $94,182, a high around $95,950, and a low near $81,386 before settling close to $82,550, a weekly drop of about 12.35%.

Bitcoin U.S. Dollar 1W Coinbase RSI Chart. Source: Nexus on X

On the same chart, Nexus highlighted earlier downside pivots, including a 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID era bottom, and a 2022 “$18k wick” low. The post added a new marker near the current area, labeling it “$82k 2025,” and argued that the weekly RSI has reached one of the lowest readings on record.

In the indicator pane, the RSI line sits near the band’s lower boundary and aligns with several circled troughs that appear during prior drawdowns. Those earlier RSI dips preceded rebounds in price on the displayed history, although the chart itself does not quantify returns or timing. As a result, the image frames the current move as a deep momentum reset occurring after Bitcoin’s run toward the $120,000 area shown near the top of the cycle.

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