Bitcoin needs a 6.24% rally to close 2025 in the green

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering the final stretch of 2025 with a narrow but pivotal window to close the year in the green. According to a leading analyst, the flagship cryptocurrency must rally approximately 6.24% above its yearly open, around $93,374, to end 2025 higher than it began.

Nic Puckrin, CEO of a crypto analytics firm tracking BTC price action, says that a 6.24 % rally is needed for Bitcoin to finish the year higher than it began. Otherwise, it will mark the first down year following a halving event since the protocol’s supply cut cycles became market drivers.

As of late December, Bitcoin is trading in the mid-to-high $80,000s, roughly $87,000- $90,000, and has struggled to build sustained upside in thin year-end markets.

Puckrin’s comments come as Glassnode lead analyst James Check says Bitcoin can continue its momentum without a pullback in gold or silver. According to a Sunday X post, James noted that gold and silver do not need to slow down for Bitcoin to perform well, and added that those who think otherwise may not fully understand these assets.

Recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s value relative to gold could decline by as much as 50%. BTC currently trades at around 20 times the value of gold. However, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, believes it’s more probable for it to fall to 10 times the value of gold than rise to 30 times by 2026. He believes the token’s value compared to gold might be cut in half, even if its price in USD appears steady.

Bitcoin plummets 30% from October peak

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $125,000 in October, just days before a historic market crash put a dent in Bitcoin’s rally and caused a decline in crypto prices across the board.

Since hitting its all-time high, BTC price has plunged by roughly 30% and found a local bottom near $80,000 in November. That has led analysts to analyze whether Bitcoin’s bull rally is a thing of the past and whether a new bear market has begun.

Meanwhile, 2025 volatility metrics indicate elevated moves and declining speculative interest. Bitcoin trading analysts note that trading is currently below crucial longer-term technical levels, such as the 365-day moving average, a move that many analysts view as a signal of weakening structural price support.

Market analysts are divided on whether a recovery will occur or if the decline will persist into the new year, often focusing on macroeconomic and liquidity factors affecting the leading cryptocurrency’s price.

Bitcoin has been trading well under its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began two years back.

Fed’s rate cuts lift crypto sentiment

Lower interest rates are positive price catalysts for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rally with fresh liquidity injections.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve issued three 25-basis-point (BPS) interest rate cuts, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided mixed forward guidance at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting.

“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said, casting doubt about another interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch tool, just 18.8% of investors expect an interest rate cut in January.

With just a few trading days remaining in 2025, the spotlight is on whether Bitcoin’s price can generate a last‑minute rally. A successful ~6.24% increase could allow BTC to buck the broader trend and close the year positively, preserving a psychological and technical milestone for market participants.

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