Bitcoin Closed 2025 with Losses: So What’s Expected in 2026? Here Are the Latest Predictions

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to record its first annual loss since 2022, driven by global macroeconomic pressures and declining momentum.

Despite reaching new highs during the year, the largest cryptocurrency struggled to recover after October and, according to the latest data, ended the year down more than 6%. Bitcoin was last trading at around $87,474.

The crypto market experienced a strong rally at the beginning of the year thanks to Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly rhetoric. However, Trump’s tariff announcements in April triggered sharp sell-offs in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. The market recovered quickly, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October.

Following this summit, the market was shaken again on October 10th by the threat of new tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on critical software. Over $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated; this figure was recorded as the largest liquidation wave in crypto history.

Analysts argue that by 2025, Bitcoin will increasingly exhibit riskier asset characteristics within the global financial system. Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com, notes that throughout the year, Bitcoin has shown a significant correlation with US stocks at several points. With increasing interest in crypto from traditional individual and institutional investors, this correlation is expected to become even more sensitive in 2026 to factors such as monetary policy changes and concerns about AI stock valuations.

In the past, Bitcoin didn’t move in parallel with stocks because it was seen as an alternative investment. However, increasing institutional participation is weakening this divergence.

In the US, the crypto sector achieved significant regulatory gains during the first year of the Trump administration. The SEC swiftly withdrew cases carried over from the Biden era; companies like Coinbase and Binance were among those affected. Furthermore, a key law was passed creating a federal framework for dollar-pegged crypto assets.

However, comprehensive regulations regarding market structure and lasting improvements to SEC rules have yet to be implemented. Industry leaders warn that this delay could dampen optimism in the market.

Although Bitcoin may close 2025 with losses, according to crypto brokerage and research firm K33, 2026 could present a much stronger picture. The company predicts that a number of catalysts could propel Bitcoin to new record highs.

In its latest report to clients, K33 stated that Bitcoin’s relatively weak performance in 2025 is largely due to “isolated bubbles” and “temporary leverage imbalances” in the crypto market.

“Opportunities arise when prices and fundamental indicators move in opposite directions. From this perspective, we are entering 2026 with constructive optimism,” said K33 analysts, arguing that Bitcoin will outperform both stock indices and gold in 2026.

The company also argued that Bitcoin is still fundamentally cheaper than it should be compared to other asset classes. The report noted that the current monetary policy environment is significantly different from the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, suggesting that an exact repetition of past cycles is less likely.

K33 argues that the Trump administration’s support for crypto has not yet been fully reflected in prices. According to the company, with the acceleration of integration between traditional finance and crypto, 2026 offers a strong setup for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

The report also argued that the US government’s strategy of holding Bitcoin, even if it doesn’t buy it, has a net positive impact on the market. While previously seized Bitcoins were seen as potential selling pressure, these assets are now effectively considered withdrawn from the market.

*This is not investment advice.

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