Are Bitcoin ETFs on track to surpass Satoshi Nakamoto as the largest BTC holder?

BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF is now the third largest holder of Bitcoin in the world, followed by Grayscale.Fidelity’s FBTC fund is the ninth on the list which is topped by Satoshi Nakamoto.

The combined holding of US ETFs stands at a little over 900K. Meanwhile, the list suggests that Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of Bitcoin holds over a million coins. However, the figure is debated.

Bitcoin ETFs could surpass Nakamoto by 2025

Bloomberg’s senior analyst Eric Balchunas shared a list of the 11 top Bitcoin holders in the world while projecting that Bitcoin ETFs will top the list by late 2025.

At the time of writing, Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of Bitcoin, was allegedly the largest Bitcoin holder. With 1.1 million coins, Nakamoto tops the BTC holding list while Bitcoin ETFs cumulatively hold 909,700. Excluding Grayscale, the US ETF holdings fall to 645,899.

Didn’t realize US ETFs are on track to pass Satoshi in bitcoin held in October. BlackRock alone is already #3 and on pace to be #1 late next year, and will likely stay there for a very long time Ht @EdmondsonShaun pic.twitter.com/QGsO00zrxp

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 12, 2024

Major institutional players like BlackRock and Fidelity are third and ninth, respectively. BlackRock’s IBIT alone already holds 347,767 Bitcoin while FBTC has 176,626 BTC. Grayscale is also a major holder in the fourth spot with 263,801 BTC. Exchanges, governments, and companies form the rest of the members on the list.

Binance Exchange has over 550K BTC coins, making it the second largest BTC holder despite recent regulatory hurdles. Coinbase did not make the cut as Balchunas argues that crypto custodians shouldn’t be included on the list as they hold customer funds instead of their own BTC.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s position as the top holder is also controversial. BitMEX Research cites some previous findings that claim Nakamoto may not have mined over 700K BTC.

Meanwhile, Microstrategy, the largest public holder of BTC, has 226,500 Bitcoin and the Bitfinex crypto exchange has 221,315 BTC. The US and the Chinese governments also make the list, largely based on seized stashs of illegal operations.

BlackRock is the largest AMC with major crypto exposure

BlackRock has been managing funds in the crypto space and remains the largest asset management company. Token Terminal estimates that the AMC has around $10 trillion worth of investments under its supervision.

BlackRock has reportedly placed its crypto investments under crypto assets, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. Its iShares Bitcoin ETF is estimated to have close to $21 billion under management. Circle and BlackRock announced a partnership and began investing in Circle Reserve Fund through USDC reserves in 2022. USDC has a supply of over $34 billion at press time.

BlackRock also has a stake in Securitize, a blockchain company that manages digital assets like tokenized money market funds.

BlackRock’s stake in BUIDL’s on-chain transfer agent, Securitize | Image: Token Terminal

According to Token Terminal, BlackRock could launch its own blockchain and maintain an open ledger for its AUM. This could not only give a major boost to Bitcoin ETFs in the US but also further strengthen BlackRock’s standing as an AMC.

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