Will Bittensor price drop to $297 as double rejection at descending trendline triggers bearish MACD crossover?

Bittensor price is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after rejecting a multi-month descending trendline for the second time in two weeks — and the daily MACD has now confirmed a bearish crossover that shifts the near-term bias toward the downside.

Bittensor ($TAO) has produced two consecutive failures at the $355 to $371 resistance zone in the past two weeks, forming a lower high on the second attempt and reinforcing the strength of the descending trendline that has capped every recovery since November 2025.

The first rejection came near $371 on March 25, following Bittensor’s halving event and reports of Grayscale Investments raising its $TAO weighting to 43.06% in its AI-focused fund. The second attempt reached $355 on April 7, produced a lower high, and reversed. Both rejection points are visible as circled pivots on the daily chart, and $TAO has since retraced to $325.1 without recovering above either level.

Double Rejection Flags Technical Weakness

The daily MACD has confirmed the setup. The MACD line has crossed below the signal, reading 19.6 against a signal of 22.0, with the histogram at -2.4. Both lines remain above zero, which limits the severity of the crossover, but the signal confirms that momentum built during March’s AI-sector rally is fading.

On the 4H chart, the MACD remains technically bullish, with the MACD line at 6.8 above the signal at 5.8 and a histogram of 1.0. The 4H Supertrend at $313.8 continues to act as dynamic support. However, the 4H histogram has compressed sharply from earlier sessions, and a bearish crossover on that timeframe would add meaningful confluence with the daily signal.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated on X that $TAO is “approaching one of those regions for dip buying in the coming weeks,” framing the current pullback as “just normal price behavior” following a triple-digit monthly rally. That view supports a base case in which $297.5 holds as a staging ground, not a breakdown level.

Key Levels and Price Targets

Immediate support: the 4H Supertrend at $313.8, followed by the structural demand zone at $297.5, visible on both the 4H and daily charts and flagged as a key floor during the March accumulation phase.

Extended downside target: $263.7, the daily Supertrend. Previous analysis flagged a potential corrective move toward $200 if the pattern repeats from prior golden-cross fractals, though that scenario requires a sustained close below $263.7 to come into scope.

Bull case: a confirmed daily close above $371 invalidates the double rejection and opens the path toward $400. Bear case: a break below $297.5 targets $263.7. Invalidation: $371.

Derivatives and Institutional Context

Coinglass data shows $TAO open interest has declined alongside price in recent sessions, consistent with long-side deleveraging rather than aggressive fresh short positioning. That configuration reduces the probability of a sharp squeeze near current levels and suggests the next directional move is more likely to be supply-driven than forced.

Grayscale has also filed with the SEC to convert its Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF and increased $TAO’s weighting to 43.06% in its AI fund, making it the fund’s dominant holding. Neither development provides a near-term price floor, but both reduce the probability of a sustained breakdown below key support if broader risk appetite stabilises.

If $297.5 holds on a daily close basis, the base case is a re-test of the $355 trendline. A confirmed break below $297.5 shifts the primary target to $263.7.

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