• bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) $ 115,604.00
  • ethereumEthereum (ETH) $ 4,508.68
  • xrpXRP (XRP) $ 3.03
  • tetherTether (USDT) $ 1.00
  • bnbBNB (BNB) $ 928.66
  • solanaSolana (SOL) $ 235.57
  • usd-coinUSDC (USDC) $ 0.999718
  • dogecoinDogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.266019
  • staked-etherLido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 4,500.47
  • tronTRON (TRX) $ 0.345562
  • cardanoCardano (ADA) $ 0.868142
  • wrapped-stethWrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 5,462.04
  • chainlinkChainlink (LINK) $ 23.66
  • wrapped-beacon-ethWrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) $ 4,861.17
  • wrapped-bitcoinWrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 115,727.00
  • hyperliquidHyperliquid (HYPE) $ 53.16
  • ethena-usdeEthena USDe (USDE) $ 0.999530
  • avalanche-2Avalanche (AVAX) $ 30.63
  • suiSui (SUI) $ 3.56
  • stellarStellar (XLM) $ 0.389834
  • figure-helocFigure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC) $ 0.996021
  • wrapped-eethWrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 4,844.37
  • bitcoin-cashBitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 594.38
  • wethWETH (WETH) $ 4,507.23
  • hedera-hashgraphHedera (HBAR) $ 0.236917
  • leo-tokenLEO Token (LEO) $ 9.53
  • litecoinLitecoin (LTC) $ 114.68
  • the-open-networkToncoin (TON) $ 3.18
  • usdsUSDS (USDS) $ 0.999318
  • shiba-inuShiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013
  • crypto-com-chainCronos (CRO) $ 0.228541
  • binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chainBinance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
  • coinbase-wrapped-btcCoinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 115,580.00
  • polkadotPolkadot (DOT) $ 4.23
  • whitebitWhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 43.64
  • world-liberty-financialWorld Liberty Financial (WLFI) $ 0.219843
  • ethena-staked-usdeEthena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.20
  • moneroMonero (XMR) $ 316.41
  • uniswapUniswap (UNI) $ 9.30
  • mantleMantle (MNT) $ 1.70
  • ethenaEthena (ENA) $ 0.702608
  • daiDai (DAI) $ 0.999672
  • bitget-tokenBitget Token (BGB) $ 4.98
  • pepePepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011
  • aaveAave (AAVE) $ 297.42
  • memecoreMemeCore (M) $ 2.46
  • okbOKB (OKB) $ 195.68
  • jito-staked-solJito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 289.52
  • nearNEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.68
  • ondo-financeOndo (ONDO) $ 1.04
  • bittensorBittensor (TAO) $ 342.78
  • ethereum-classicEthereum Classic (ETC) $ 20.53
  • aptosAptos (APT) $ 4.40
  • worldcoin-wldWorldcoin (WLD) $ 1.50
  • story-2Story (IP) $ 9.44
  • binance-staked-solBinance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 252.73
  • pi-networkPi Network (PI) $ 0.354515
  • pump-funPump.fun (PUMP) $ 0.008085
  • usdt0USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.999811
  • binance-peg-wethBinance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 4,508.38
  • polygon-ecosystem-tokenPOL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.259433
  • usd1-wlfiUSD1 (USD1) $ 0.999764
  • arbitrumArbitrum (ARB) $ 0.495914
  • internet-computerInternet Computer (ICP) $ 4.70
  • kaspaKaspa (KAS) $ 0.085170
  • blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fundBlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
  • jupiter-perpetuals-liquidity-provider-tokenJupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 5.80
  • susdssUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.07
  • kinetic-staked-hypeKinetiq Staked HYPE (KHYPE) $ 53.25
  • cosmosCosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.47
  • vechainVeChain (VET) $ 0.024303
  • pudgy-penguinsPudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.033067
  • algorandAlgorand (ALGO) $ 0.234167
  • myx-financeMYX Finance (MYX) $ 10.73
  • rocket-pool-ethRocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 5,145.66
  • kucoin-sharesKuCoin (KCS) $ 15.93
  • gatechain-tokenGate (GT) $ 16.93
  • render-tokenRender (RENDER) $ 3.84
  • kelp-dao-restaked-ethKelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 4,743.65
  • sei-networkSei (SEI) $ 0.319175
  • fasttokenFasttoken (FTN) $ 4.48
  • hash-2Provenance Blockchain (HASH) $ 0.037572
  • falcon-financeFalcon USD (USDF) $ 0.999890
  • usdtbUSDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999436
  • bonkBonk (BONK) $ 0.000023
  • official-trumpOfficial Trump (TRUMP) $ 8.58
  • stakewise-v3-osethStakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 4,740.36
  • bfusdBFUSD (BFUSD) $ 0.999792
  • flare-networksFlare (FLR) $ 0.022930
  • fetch-aiArtificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.646883
  • skySky (SKY) $ 0.071963
  • filecoinFilecoin (FIL) $ 2.42
  • liquid-staked-ethereumLiquid Staked ETH (LSETH) $ 4,867.45
  • jupiter-exchange-solanaJupiter (JUP) $ 0.509108
  • lombard-staked-btcLombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 115,769.00
  • polygon-bridged-usdt-polygonPolygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 0.999955
  • renzo-restaked-ethRenzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 4,768.14
  • immutable-xImmutable (IMX) $ 0.731045
  • tether-goldTether Gold (XAUT) $ 3,697.20
  • optimismOptimism (OP) $ 0.757835
  • xdce-crowd-saleXDC Network (XDC) $ 0.075285
  • celestiaCelestia (TIA) $ 1.70
  • jupiter-staked-solJupiter Staked SOL (JUPSOL) $ 267.69
  • injective-protocolInjective (INJ) $ 13.60
  • nexoNEXO (NEXO) $ 1.29
  • paypal-usdPayPal USD (PYUSD) $ 0.999914
  • wbnbWrapped BNB (WBNB) $ 928.79
  • mantle-staked-etherMantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 4,853.20
  • spx6900SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.27
  • blockstackStacks (STX) $ 0.655435
  • solv-btcSolv Protocol BTC (SOLVBTC) $ 115,204.00
  • first-digital-usdFirst Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.997831
  • sonic-3Sonic (S) $ 0.301804
  • aerodrome-financeAerodrome Finance (AERO) $ 1.25
  • syrupusdcsyrupUSDC (SYRUPUSDC) $ 1.12
  • msolMarinade Staked SOL (MSOL) $ 311.64
  • pax-goldPAX Gold (PAXG) $ 3,704.98
  • lido-daoLido DAO (LDO) $ 1.18
  • saros-financeSaros (SAROS) $ 0.402410
  • binance-bridged-usdc-bnb-smart-chainBinance Bridged USDC (BNB Smart Chain) (USDC) $ 0.999487
  • curve-dao-tokenCurve DAO (CRV) $ 0.734441
  • super-oethSuper OETH (SUPEROETH) $ 4,507.32
  • the-graphThe Graph (GRT) $ 0.093940
  • arbitrum-bridged-wbtc-arbitrum-oneArbitrum Bridged WBTC (Arbitrum One) (WBTC) $ 115,449.00
  • kaiaKaia (KAIA) $ 0.159941
  • pyth-networkPyth Network (PYTH) $ 0.163598
  • flokiFLOKI (FLOKI) $ 0.000096
  • conflux-tokenConflux (CFX) $ 0.177723
  • clbtcclBTC (CLBTC) $ 115,900.00
  • dogwifcoindogwifhat (WIF) $ 0.895144
  • raydiumRaydium (RAY) $ 3.25
  • cgeth-hashkey-cloudcgETH Hashkey Cloud (CGETH.HASH) $ 4,360.07
  • pancakeswap-tokenPancakeSwap (CAKE) $ 2.47
  • zcashZcash (ZEC) $ 52.43
  • tezosTezos (XTZ) $ 0.786612
  • pendlePendle (PENDLE) $ 4.94
  • fartcoinFartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 0.822122
  • fourFour (FORM) $ 2.14
  • theta-tokenTheta Network (THETA) $ 0.815082
  • l2-standard-bridged-weth-baseL2 Standard Bridged WETH (Base) (WETH) $ 4,503.72
  • virtual-protocolVirtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) $ 1.24
  • galaGALA (GALA) $ 0.016886
  • ethereum-name-serviceEthereum Name Service (ENS) $ 23.29
  • iotaIOTA (IOTA) $ 0.188780
  • aethirAethir (ATH) $ 0.061238
  • vaultaVaulta (A) $ 0.472245
  • the-sandboxThe Sandbox (SAND) $ 0.299931
  • ripple-usdRipple USD (RLUSD) $ 1.00
  • ousgOUSG (OUSG) $ 112.58
  • ether-fiEther.fi (ETHFI) $ 1.48
  • jito-governance-tokenJito (JTO) $ 1.83
  • jasmycoinJasmyCoin (JASMY) $ 0.014270
  • stader-ethxStader ETHx (ETHX) $ 4,816.65
  • ondo-us-dollar-yieldOndo US Dollar Yield (USDY) $ 1.10
  • tbtctBTC (TBTC) $ 115,364.00
  • binance-peg-dogecoinBinance-Peg Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.265954
  • usdx-money-usdxStables Labs USDX (USDX) $ 0.996627
  • arbitrum-bridged-weth-arbitrum-oneArbitrum Bridged WETH (Arbitrum One) (WETH) $ 4,507.06
  • newton-projectAB (AB) $ 0.008431
  • morphoMorpho (MORPHO) $ 1.97
  • decentralandDecentraland (MANA) $ 0.339323
  • flowFlow (FLOW) $ 0.402370
  • bittorrentBitTorrent (BTT) $ 0.00000064
  • coinbase-wrapped-staked-ethCoinbase Wrapped Staked ETH (CBETH) $ 4,957.69
  • mantle-restaked-ethMantle Restaked ETH (CMETH) $ 4,836.61
  • ether-fi-staked-ethether.fi Staked ETH (EETH) $ 4,495.37
  • beldexBeldex (BDX) $ 0.082343
  • walrus-2Walrus (WAL) $ 0.416703
  • swethSwell Ethereum (SWETH) $ 4,872.01
  • usual-usdUsual USD (USD0) $ 0.997924
  • global-dollarGlobal Dollar (USDG) $ 0.999645
  • benqi-liquid-staked-avaxBENQI Liquid Staked AVAX (SAVAX) $ 37.40
  • loaded-lionsLoaded Lions (LION) $ 0.017541
  • vision-3Vision (VSN) $ 0.164866
  • build-onBUILDon (B) $ 0.531087
  • bitcoin-avalanche-bridged-btc-bAvalanche Bridged BTC (Avalanche) (BTC.B) $ 115,633.00
  • starknetStarknet (STRK) $ 0.129803
  • bitcoin-svBitcoin SV (BSV) $ 25.97
  • eigenlayerEigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) (EIGEN) $ 1.54
  • usddUSDD (USDD) $ 1.00
  • based-brettBrett (BRETT) $ 0.051229
  • polygon-pos-bridged-weth-polygon-posPolygon PoS Bridged WETH (Polygon POS) (WETH) $ 4,507.48
  • frax-etherFrax Ether (FRXETH) $ 4,489.38
  • bybit-staked-solBybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) $ 259.88
  • heliumHelium (HNT) $ 2.66
  • true-usdTrueUSD (TUSD) $ 0.996997
  • mantle-bridged-usdt-mantleMantle Bridged USDT (Mantle) (USDT) $ 1.00
  • syrupMaple Finance (SYRUP) $ 0.432857
  • dydx-chaindYdX (DYDX) $ 0.618696
  • neoNEO (NEO) $ 6.60
  • apecoinApeCoin (APE) $ 0.578476
  • arweaveArweave (AR) $ 7.01
  • telcoinTelcoin (TEL) $ 0.004958
  • polygon-pos-bridged-dai-polygon-posPolygon PoS Bridged DAI (Polygon POS) (DAI) $ 0.999668
  • bridged-usdc-polygon-pos-bridgeBridged USDC (Polygon PoS Bridge) (USDC.E) $ 0.999706
  • coredaoorgCore (CORE) $ 0.441128
  • steakhouse-usdc-morpho-vaultSteakhouse USDC Morpho Vault (STEAKUSDC) $ 1.10
  • thorchainTHORChain (RUNE) $ 1.27
  • reserve-rights-tokenReserve Rights (RSR) $ 0.007416
  • instadappFluid (FLUID) $ 5.76

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

0 43

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

As I write this piece, I’m in shock.

The tariffs that President Trump announced yesterday were significantly larger than even the most aggressive of estimates.

The basics have already been discussed to death, but let’s summarize them anyway just to set things straight: Trump issued a blanket tariff of 10%. For 60 or so countries, there’s a tariff of roughly half of the “total sum of all unfair trade practices,” as calculated by the Trump administration.

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

As seen in this chart from the Budget Lab (a Yale think tank), the total weighting of all these tariffs leads to an effective tariff rate at 22.5%, which would be the highest it’s been in a century.

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

Source: The Budget Lab

Other estimates are as high as 26.5% to 30%.

Now, how exactly did the Trump team quantify these estimates of tariffs imposed on the US? It turns out that it was a crass estimation of the country’s trade deficit divided by its exports.

In chart form, you get this extremely simplistic linear extrapolation:

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

I walked through the mechanics of how the Trump team calculated these estimates, because it’s important to grasp how little thought was put into coming up with the numbers. They quite literally made this simplistic estimation, then decided the reciprocal tariff would be half of that made up number to seem forgiving. It’s not forgiving.

Now let’s move into discerning the economic impact of these announcements, assuming they hold (and given what we’ve seen from the administration so far, who the hell knows if they will).

The Budget Lab analyzed the impacts of the tariffs and came up with the following:

  • Short-term: US real GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 0.9% to 1.0% lower due to the tariffs.
  • Long-term: The US economy is projected to be permanently 0.3% to 0.6% smaller — equivalent to an annual loss of $90 billion to $180 billion in 2024 dollars. Global GDP also shrinks in the long run, though China’s GDP remains largely unaffected, per the estimates.
  • Prices: The short-term price level on all goods rises by 2.1% to 2.6%, translating to a per-household consumer loss of $3,400 to $4,200 in 2024 dollars. Food prices specifically are projected to increase by 3.7%, nearly double the recent grocery inflation rate.

In chart form, the GDP hit looks something like this, and remember that this doesn’t even consider retaliation from other countries:

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

I liked the way Brad Setser, one of my favorite economists on trade, put it:

US economy braces for the largest tariffs in over a century

If you’re not familiar with the impact of oil shocks on the economy, the experience of seeing what follows (hint: a recession) is a sobering one.

How likely is said recession? Well, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro has moved up his implied probability of recession to 89%. I listen when Neil warns about recession because he was one of the only economists who said a recession being imminent between 2022-2024 was nonsense whilst everyone else had their odds at 100%.

Source

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.