Jupiter rallies 50% in a month, but upcoming $33M token unlock may cap upside

Jupiter is up 10% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.6199 but a looming token unlock could threaten the uptrend.

Summary

• JUP is up 10%, trading at $0.6199, with strong spot and derivatives activity.
• 53.47M JUP tokens worth $33M will unlock on July 28, potentially affecting short-term price.
• Technical indicators show a bullish trend, though RSI near 70 suggests caution ahead.

Over the past month, the token has increased by more than 50%, rising from a weekly low of $0.5215 to the most recent local high of $0.6574. It is still 69% below its peak of $2.00, which was reached in January 2024.

On-chain and derivatives data indicate a sharp rise in trading activity. The 24-hour spot trading volume for Jupiter (JUP) has increased by 372% to $189.8 million, indicating that investor interest is once again high.

According to CoinGlass data, the derivatives volume has increased by 238.5% to $393.1 million, while open interest has increased by 22.5% to $202.7 million. The rise in open interest reflects an increase in active futures positions, suggesting that traders are setting up for future price movements.

$33M JUP token unlock could weigh on the short-term price

As per Tokenomist data, 53.47 million JUP tokens, worth approximately $33 million, are scheduled to unlock on July 28. This represents about 1.28% of the current circulating supply of 3 billion tokens. So far, only 42% of JUP’s 7 billion total supply has been unlocked.

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Token unlocks often result in additional selling pressure, particularly when market sentiment is positive. Although not every unlocked token is sold, raising supply could slow down momentum, particularly if traders choose to take advantage of recent gains.

Jupiter technical analysis

Jupiter’s daily chart shows a clear upward trend, with the price rising along the upper Bollinger Band. The most recent candle closed at $0.6207, just below the upper band at $0.6378, suggesting that there is strong bullish momentum.

Jupiter daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

At 65.7, the relative strength index is getting close to the overbought mark. This indicates caution if momentum slows, but it also suggests strong buying interest. Short-term profit-taking may be triggered by a move above 70, which would confirm overbought conditions.

If JUP breaks above $0.6574 with strong volume, it may retest $0.70, supported by increased derivatives positioning and trend strength. Sustained momentum could target the psychological $0.75 level.

A pullback toward the mid-Bollinger band around $0.54 might occur if the $0.60–$0.58 support zone is not maintained, particularly after unlock. A retest of $0.50, where previous accumulation occurred, could be triggered by a break below this level.

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