ETH Selloff Meets Late Bounce as Volume Climbs; Range Tightens as Risk Appetite Plunges

Ether slid, then bounced late as activity picked up and the trading range tightened, leaving nearby checkpoints in focus.

Context
Stocks fell as the S&P 500 closed down 0.99% at 6,822.34 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.57% to 23,581.14. The VIX rose to 17.22, up 1.77% on the day.

Macro tone also stayed cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his Oct. 29 FOMC press conference that a December rate cut was not assured.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 99.52 on Oct. 30 from 98.57 on Oct. 28, while U.S.-China talks remained without a trade deal despite upbeat comments from President Donald Trump about meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Ethereum core developers scheduled the Fusaka upgrade for Dec. 3 following the network’s biweekly coordination call on Oct. 30.

Technical analysis highlights

The following is based on CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.

• Move vs market: Ether’s retreat from the $3,921 area tracked a broader crypto slide, with institutional flows turning negative at resistance.
• Path and range: The session traced a bearish structure, falling from $3,921.43 to $3,731.00 for a $230.31 range (about 5.9%).
• Breakdown locus: The decisive push lower came when $3,880 gave way, alongside a peak 443,415 print, about 103% over the 24-hour norm.
• Late bounce: From $3,731, ether climbed 1.35% to $3,771.82 and broke back above $3,760, which had capped earlier attempts.
• Participation: Session volume ran 32% above the seven-day average.

What the patterns suggest

• Breakdown, then test: Losing $3,880 confirms sellers were active at that ceiling; reclaiming $3,760 is the first sign buyers pushed back.
• Range behavior: With lower highs overhead and a higher low off $3,731, the model flags range-bound trade between $3,730 to $3,880 near term.
• Tone of the bounce: Recovery came on moderate flows, which looks like measured buying rather than a short squeeze.

Support and resistance map

• Primary resistance: $3,840 to $3,880 (post-breakdown band).
• Secondary resistance: $3,760, now reclaimed and a nearby checkpoint.
• Critical support: $3,731 (session low).
• Major support confluence: $3,700 to $3,720.

Volume picture

• Overall: +32% versus the seven-day average.
• Peak: 443,415 on the $3,880 breakdown (about 103% over the 24-hour norm).
• On the rebound: Moderate flows indicate measured demand, not broad capitulation or a squeeze.

Targets and risk framing

• If buyers press: A move above $3,840 opens a run to $3,880, then $3,920.
• If sellers regain control: Failure at $3,760 leaves $3,700 exposed, with $3,650 as the next risk zone.
• Tactical takeaway: With participation elevated and the band $3,730 to $3,880 well defined, many traders wait for a clear break or a decisive reclaim before leaning harder either way.

Source