Crypto rebounds from oversold levels, altcoin season indicator revisits January high

Bitcoin $BTC$65,450.64 experienced a volatile overnight trading session, rising by as much as 3.7% before giving back some of those gains.

The largest cryptocurrency remains in the black since midnight UTC, up by 2.4% to trade around $65,600. That’s still within a price range that has persisted over the past three weeks.

The altcoin market is also showing signs of life, with layer-1 tokens solana ($SOL) and ADA$0.2709 each putting in a 4.5% rally while tokens including $VIRTUAL, MORPHO and $ETHFI climbed more than 10%.

U.S. equity index futures rose alongside the crypto market. Silver’s 4% rise since midnight suggests the broader risk-asset rally is speculative rather than news-driven.

The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) indicator has moved out of oversold territory back into a neutral zone, suggesting a period of consolidation might be on the cards on Wednesday.

Derivatives positioning

• Cumulative crypto futures open interest (OI) has risen by over 1.5% to $93.5 billion, although much of that notional growth comes from spot price appreciation rather than capital inflows.
• OI in bitcoin and ether ($ETH) futures has largely held steady over 24 hours, with futures tied to tether gold (XAUT) seeing a 12% decline in open positions. Capital seems to be rotating out of gold-linked assets.
• TRX, AVAX, $SOL, LINK and HBAR stand out as coins with the highest 24-hour cumulative volume delta. Positive CVD readings indicate that buying demand is outpacing selling demand.
• Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, dropped to 56%, reversing the early week pop to 65% to suggest market calm. This is supportive of continued recovery in $BTC’s price. Ether’s volatility displays a similar pattern.
• On Deribit-listed bitcoin options, the $60,000 put has become the most popular play, reflecting downside concerns. Puts, or bearish bets, for both $BTC and $ETH continue to trade pricier than calls, or bullish ones.

Token talk

• The “altcoin season” indicator hit its highest level since early January on Wednesday, buoyed by rallies across the board.
• AI agent token $VIRTUAL led the pack, rising 15.5% since midnight and more than 20% in the past 24 hours to make it the best-performing asset in the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) index, which added 1.7%.
• Restaking token $ETHFI also rose more than 10% in the past 24 hours after CEO Mike Silagadze hinted at potentially rolling out a stablecoin.
• Lending platform Morpho’s native token rounded off Wednesday’s altcoin rally. It has now risen by 45.9% over the past 30 days after a 15% gain over the past 24 hours.
• On the flip side, toncoin (TON) and pippin (PIPPIN) are both in the red over the past 24 hours after increasing in value earlier this week, indicating asset rotation among traders and investors.

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