CHART: Crypto election markets and polls show very different odds

Is this year’s new crop of ‘real money at stake’ prediction markets providing the media with a more accurate prediction of the November 5 election? Or are these thinly traded and mostly offshore markets easily swayed by pseudonymous traders with a few million dollars?

Landslide or sub-1% odds, depending on the citation

Trump has certainly gone out of his way to court crypto voters. He spoke at the largest Bitcoin conference, owns a Casascius bitcoin, hosted a dinner for NFT buyers, and promised to “keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin.”

He has also promised to extend clemency to Ross Ulbricht and rename bitcoin seized by the US government the “strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”

Harris, for her part, has hesitated to comment much on the crypto industry, promising generally to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.” Some of her staff speak positively about her intentions, and she has specifically promised to “protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who make them know their money is safe.”

In all, it is easy to see why Trump is favored among crypto voters. Their money has flowed onto prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi and boosted Trump’s favor far beyond national polling averages.

Media, in turn, frequently cite these crypto-influenced election odds as a supposed citation of Trump’s increasing lead over Harris over the last four weeks.

However, these crypto-friendly platforms have only meaningfully existed for this election. Averages from traditional pollsters such as Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight show tight odds within a few basis points.

Real crypto at stake, or washed around for election odds media?

On crypto-friendly Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump has a 66.3% and 62% chance of winning, respectively. Contrast those figures with traditional polling averages. Nate Silver shows 47.5%, NYT shows 48%, The Hill shows 48%, and FiveThirtyEight shows 46.7%.

Although Polymarket has gained a disproportionate share of US media attention in spite of its alleged ban of US users, crypto is not unique in its prediction that Trump will win the 2024 election. Certain non-crypto publications like Economist and Fox favor Trump.

Most traditional polls are evenly split, without enough margin of error to forecast the outcome.

Fortunately, disagreement over electoral outcomes is a purposeful feature of American democracy. This year, crypto prediction markets enable groups of traders to gamble millions and earn media attention for their bets. Traditional polls have a distinct methodology.

In any case, the actual results of the election will become certain no earlier than the evening of November 5.

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