AVAX Price Action Similar To Early November, History Repeats?

AVAX price could be on the verge of another major rally based on historical observations.

The cryptocurrency recently retested its November 2024 lows, meaning it has given up all the gains achieved in Q4.

Despite the discounted price, the current position looks quite similar to the early stages of its November rally.

For example, both its relative strength index and money flow indicator have been rising after retesting the recent bottom range. Just as was the case in early November.

AVAX price action / source: TradingView

These similarities and significant discount suggest that AVAX price action could be ready for a sizable recovery.

But, for that to happen, it has to demonstrate a strong demand build-up. Analysts have expressed optimism in AVAX price potential for a rally.

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Among them includes Carl Moon who expects AVAX to rally above $59 once it embarks on its next major rally.

Source: X

Can AVAX Sum Up Enough demand For a Strong Rally?

The cryptocurrency has so far demonstrated some demand but it is clear that it has been relatively weak.

Especially compared to November’s aggressive bounce back. The one main difference is whale activity.

Whales are a vital part of any major rally but IntoTheBlock data revealed that whales have been selling in the last 3 days.

AVAX large holder netflows / source: IntoTheBlock

Large holder netflows on 20 February alone were in the red by over 207,000 AVAX.

In contrast, whale netflows registered positive flows at the start of the November rally.

This is a major difference which could offer insights into the next potential price move.

In other words, while AVAX price currently looks bullish, there is still a noteworthy possibility of more downside or weak demand.

AVAX Balance By Time Held Reveals Interesting Findings

AVAX’s discounted price tag is starting to entice long term holders (HODLers).

There was clear sign of accumulation in this class of holders, judging by the uptick in their holdings which recently peaked at 25.53 million AVAX.

AVAX balances by time held/ source: IntoTheBlock

AVAX HODLers held notably lower coins at the start of its bullish trend in November. Their balances were around 23 million AVAX.

Meanwhile, trader balances registered a sharp dip in the last 3 days from 29.54 million coins to 26.98 million.

The decline in trader balances suggests a shift from a short term to longer term approach.

This aligns with the uptick in HODLer balances. Meanwhile, the cruiser class of holders also demonstrated noteworthy activity.

While cruiser balances are down by a considerable margin from their mid-February levels, they are currently higher than they were at the start of November.

Cruisers had 52.8 million AVAX on 1 November and that figure has since gone up to 58.3 million AVAX as of 20 February.

The higher recent figure confirms that many holders of AVAX to anticipate a price pivot close to its current levels.

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