Early 2026 tailwinds for bitcoin miners as hashrate falls, profitability improves: JPMorgan

Wall Street bank JPMorgan said bitcoin BTC$95,498.51 miners and data center operators have started 2026 on a firmer footing, pointing to improving fundamentals that could support the sector in the months ahead.

In a January update published Friday, the bank estimated that the 14 U.S.-listed miners and operators it tracks added a combined $13 billion in market capitalization over the first two weeks of the year, lifting their total value to about $62 billion.

The report attributed this early strength to a modest rise in bitcoin prices combined with a pullback in network hashrate, which eased competitive pressure.

“On the mining side, average daily revenue per EH/s increased, as bitcoin posted modest gains while the average network hashrate declined from the end of December,” wrote analysts Reginald Smith and Charles Pearce.

Average daily revenue per exahash increased during the period, while gross mining margins improved by roughly 300 basis points from December to about 47%, according to the analysts’ estimates. The hashprice, a key measure of mining profitability that includes transaction fees, was up 11% from the end of December as of mid-January.

The push by bitcoin miners into artificial intelligence and high-performance (HPC) computing is emerging as a key lever for improving profitability, as operators look to diversify revenue beyond block rewards.

Looking ahead, the analysts highlighted the continued decline in the network hashrate as a potentially supportive factor. The bank estimated that the average network hashrate fell about 2% in the first half of January and remains meaningfully below October levels, a dynamic that could sustain higher revenue per unit of computing power if it persists.

The hashrate refers to the total combined computational power used to mine and process transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain, and is measured in exahashes per second.

Still, the analysts cautioned that revenue per exahash is still well below year-ago levels, underscoring the importance of further efficiency gains and disciplined capital deployment.

Capacity expansion among U.S.-listed miners also remains a theme. JPMorgan estimates the group added roughly 12 exahash of capacity since late November, led by Bitdeer (BTDR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), pushing the combined hashrate of U.S.-listed miners to about 419 exahash. That represents roughly 41% of the global network, the highest share on record, which the bank sees as reinforcing the strategic importance of publicly traded operators in the global mining ecosystem.

Improving profitability, easing competitive intensity and valuations that are elevated but not stretched create a more constructive setup for the sector as 2026 unfolds, particularly if bitcoin prices remain stable and network conditions continue to normalize, the report added.

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