Ethereum (ETH) Worst Days Over, Cycle Top Target Raised to $6,000

On August 5, Ethereum’s (ETH) price dropped to $2,226, causing the broader market to panic. But since then, the altcoin has been able to erase some of the losses, trading at $2,660 at press time.

However, investors are wondering whether ETH has survived its most difficult phase. This on-chain analysis reveals the answer.

Ethereum’s Bull Run Is Back on Track

One way to assess this is by analyzing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands. These bands allow investors to estimate the price levels at which a cryptocurrency will reach a high level of unrealized profits or losses.

When a cryptocurrency reaches its highest level of unrealized profits, it means that the price has reached its cycle top. However, when there is a high level of losses, the crypto appears to be close to the bottom.

According to Glassnode, the extremely high MVRV pricing level (red) is at $6,759. This value points to the potential price that establishes the top of the Ethereum market cycle.

Ethereum MVRV Pricing Bands. Source: Glassnode

As mentioned earlier, this metric also spots potential bottoms. As seen above, the extremely low MVRV pricing level (blue) was $1,687. The last time ETH reached this level was in December 2023, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s price might no longer drop below this point before the end of this cycle.

Furthermore, the percentage of ETH held on exchanges continues to decline, indicating a shift in investor behavior. Typically, when more cryptocurrencies are stored on exchanges, it signals an intent to sell, which can put downward pressure on prices.

As of March 19, the percentage of ETH on exchanges stood at 11.71%. Currently, that figure has dropped to 9.95%. This reduction suggests that Ethereum holders are increasingly opting to retain their assets rather than sell them, indicating a growing confidence in the coin’s long-term value.